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[man] You could think of yourself
driving in a mountainous area

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with the road circling up the mountain.

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An overpowered engine
driving much, much too fast,

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driving without any headlights.

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Cliffs that you're
at risk of falling over.

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[engine revving]

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You want, of course,
to turn on the headlights,

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and that is
what science tries to do all the time.

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To give us the headlights
so we can see what risks we're facing.

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Recent discoveries made by scientists

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studying the ways
in which our planet works

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are surely of the greatest importance
for all of us.

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Their insights are deeply troubling.

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Nonetheless, they also give us hope,

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because they show us
how we can fix things.

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One of those who has devoted his life

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to studying
these globally important problems

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comes from Sweden.

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Johan Rockström.

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What he and his colleagues
around the world have discovered

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is perhaps the most important
scientific insight of our times.

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Johan has given us hope.

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Hope that there is
a way out of this crisis.

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And once you too have heard it,

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you may never look at the world
in the same way again.

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[Johan] This is not about the planet.

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This is about us. It is about our future.

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We still have a chance.

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The window is still open
for us to have a future for humanity.

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That I think is the beauty
of where we are today.

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[David Attenborough]
Our understanding of how our planet works

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is always advancing.

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We can now see more clearly than ever

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how life's intricate complexity
is essential for our own survival.

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But biodiversity is collapsing,
and our climate is changing.

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Johan Rockström has focused
on what keeps our planet stable.

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We're the first generation,
thanks to science,

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to be informed that we may be undermining

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the stability
and the ability of planet Earth

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to support human development
as we know it.

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This comes from ice core data,

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and I think that this is
the most important graph we have today.

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[David] The graph is a revelation.

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It shows global temperature variability

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over the past 100,000 years

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since the first appearance
of modern humans.

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We were jumping between plus-minus
ten degrees Celsius in a decade.

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We had, to put it simple, a rough time.

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[David] What's critical
is that the temperature stabilized

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just 10,000 years ago.

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[Johan] You can just see from the graph
that this is a remarkable,

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not to say almost miraculously stable,
interglacial period.

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[David] Geologists have given
this period of stability

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its own special name.

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It's called the Holocene.

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The Holocene is remarkable.

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It is a warm period
where the planet's global mean temperature

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varies between
just plus-minus one degree Celsius

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during the entire period.

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Plus-minus one.

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…is plus-minus one degree Celsius.

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This is what established
the modern world as we know it.

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[David] The Holocene's stable temperatures

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gave us a stable planet.

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Sea levels stabilized.

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For the first time,

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we had predictable seasons
and reliable weather.

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This stability was fundamental.

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For the first time,
civilization was possible,

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and humanity wasted no time
in taking advantage.

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We domesticated rice, wheat,

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teff, maize, sorghum,

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on different continents
roughly at the same time.

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And off we go on the civilizational
journey as we know it.

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This is the interglacial stage
that has enabled us

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to develop
modern civilizations as we know it.

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The Holocene is the only
state of the planet we know for certain

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can support
the modern world as we know it.

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[David] Since the dawn of civilization,

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we have depended on
this stable state of the planet.

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A planet with two permanent ice caps,

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flowing rivers,

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a cloak of forests,

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reliable weather,

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and an abundance of life.

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Throughout the Holocene,

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this stable planet
has given us food to eat,

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water to drink, and clean air to breathe.

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But we have just left the Holocene behind.

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The exponential rise
in human pressures on planet Earth

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has now reached a stage

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where we have now
created our own geological epoch.

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[David] Scientists recently declared
that the Holocene has ended

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and that we are now in the Anthropocene,

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the age of humans,

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because we now are
the primary drivers of change

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on planet Earth.

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We have converted
half the world's habitable land

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to grow crops and rear livestock.

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We move more sediment and rock
than all the Earth's natural processes.

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More than half of the ocean
is actively fished.

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Nine out of ten of us
breathe unhealthy air.

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And, in a single lifetime,

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we have warmed the Earth
by more than one degree.

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I would say that perhaps
the most dire message to humanity

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is the following.

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So we have, in just 50 years,

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managed to push ourselves

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outside of a state that we've been in
for the past 10,000 years.

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Are we at risk
of destabilizing the whole planet?

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It's just
a mind-boggling situation to be in.

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For the first time,
we have to seriously consider

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the risk of destabilizing
the entire planet.

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[David] Johan's ambition
has been to see the big picture.

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To draw
from a global network of knowledge,

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to learn what keeps
the entire planet stable.

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What are the systems
that determine the state of the planet?

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And if they are five or if they were 30,

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we did not know when we started.

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We just open-ended asked the question,

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"Can we identify the systems
that regulate the state of the planet?"

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[David] Those systems
have held the planet in its stable state

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throughout the Holocene.

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As we increase our pressures on Earth,

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there is a danger that those systems
will start to break down.

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That we will
break through Earth's boundaries,

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causing the stability
that we depend on to collapse.

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[Johan] I was absolutely convinced
that we wanted

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to dig into this challenge
of defining planetary boundaries,

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and can we identify a quantitative point

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beyond which we risk
triggering nonlinear changes?

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And that becomes your boundary.

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[David] If scientists
could define our planet's boundaries,

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could they also give us the road map
to guide us out of our current crisis?

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To show us not only how to avoid collapse,

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but how to secure
our own thriving future on planet Earth?

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The first and most obvious boundary
is well known to us all.

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With global temperatures now warmer

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than they've been
since the dawn of civilization,

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there is a danger that we have already
crossed the boundary in Earth's climate.

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Perhaps the most alarming evidence of this

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is in the change of our planet's ice.

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As a Swede,
Johan feels this more keenly than most.

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[Johan] As a kid in Sweden,
like all children in Sweden,

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we learn that the south top at Kebnekaise
is the highest peak in this country.

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And it's something that is just ingrained

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in the identity
of being a Swedish citizen.

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So, of course, it's…

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You know, with sadness,

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one comes to realize that
that will no longer be the case.

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[David] The south peak of Kebnekaise

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has recently lost its status
as the highest peak in Sweden.

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The glacier
that makes up its highest point

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has been shrinking roughly
at the rate of half a meter a year

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for the last 50 years.

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[Johan] What we're seeing
here at Kebnekaise

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on its own
will not destabilize the planet.

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But having two caps of a permanent ice

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in the Arctic and in Antarctica is

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the very precondition
for the planet to stay in this state

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that has enabled us
to develop civilizations as we know it.

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And that's why
it's such an enormous concern

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to see glaciers melting,

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irrespective of whether
it's a small glacier at Kebnekaise,

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or whether we're talking about Greenland,

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because they all add together

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to this fantastic capacity
of cooling the planet.

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[David] This cooling effect
was fundamental

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in keeping the Earth's temperature stable
throughout the Holocene.

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The planet's ice was reflecting
just the right amount of the Sun's energy

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back into space.

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A permanent white surface
like what we can see around us here

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is reflecting back 90, 95%
of incoming heat from the Sun.

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When these ice sheets start melting,

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not only do they shrink in size

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so the fringe areas
are very dark and absorb heat,

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but even just the fact
that you get liquid surface on the ice

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changes the color so significantly,
so you can come to a point

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where the ice sheets tip over
from being self-cooling

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to becoming self-warming,

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and that is
the most dramatic tipping point

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in the Earth's system.

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[David] A tipping point is a point

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beyond which a change
becomes irreversible.

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[man] It's like a train
that's parked on a slope,

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and it's beginning to move.

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We're losing the brakes on the train,

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and so the train is accelerating,

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getting faster and faster,
and at some point, we lose control.

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[water splashing]

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[David] We are already losing the brakes

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that could prevent the melting
of the Greenland ice cap.

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[man] When I first came here, aged 20,

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it felt like kind of a dream,

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because I was seeing landscapes
that I had only kind of seen in textbooks.

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[David] Jason is one
of the many scientists around the world

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whose evidence and insights
were fundamental to Johan's research.

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The millennia snowfall
onto Greenland has accumulated,

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produced this dome of ice.

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It's two miles thick and,
you know, well up in the atmosphere.

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It's really cold up there.

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[David] As it melts,
the surface of the ice cap

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lowers into warmer air,

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speeding up the melt.

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The more it melts,

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the cooler the climate would need
to become in order to reverse it.

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But today's climate
is already too hot for Greenland.

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So in the current climate,
Greenland is already beyond its threshold,

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er, where it's now losing
10,000 cubic meters of ice per second.

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That's the average loss rate.

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Now, that loss rate will only continue

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as the climate heats up.

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So is Greenland lost?

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Evidently, it is.

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[David] Unless we can
significantly cool the Earth's climate,

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the melting of the Greenland ice cap
will inevitably continue.

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[Johan] The drama here is that
one characteristic of tipping points

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is that once you've pressed
the on button, you cannot stop it.

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It takes over. It's too late.
It's not like you could say,

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"Oops. Now I realize I didn't want
to melt the Greenland ice sheet.

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Let's… Let's back off."

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Then, it's too late.

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When you cross these tipping points,
you can enter a point of no return

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that you basically commit the planet
to an irreversible sliding away

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from a state that,
in our case, can support us humans.

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[David] The melting of Greenland's ice cap

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would raise sea levels
around the world by seven meters.

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[Jason] Imagine a world
where sea level is not static.

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Where it's changing.

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Cities, hundreds of coastal cities
now are threatened by rising seas.

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Er, that stability in sea level was key

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to the development of civilization.

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It's… It's a… It's a Mad Max future
that we're facing.

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[David] But Greenland
is just one of Earth's polar ice caps,

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and it's dwarfed by its southern twin.

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Not so many years ago,

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it was thought that Antarctica
was the resilient system.

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This was the ice sheet that was
not very much affected by climate change.

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But today, that has changed completely.

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Today we're seeing
accelerated loss of mass

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and loss of ice
into the ocean in Antarctica.

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West Antarctica would lead
to sea-level rise of more than five meters

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if it were to melt down completely,

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and then east Antarctica
actually holds the tenfold of that,

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so more than 50 meters worth
of sea-level potential.

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[David] Ricarda
is one of Johan's colleagues,

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00:15:19.877 --> 00:15:23.297
and she studies
how tipping points can interact.

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00:15:23.380 --> 00:15:26.383
The important point
to make here is that everything

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00:15:26.467 --> 00:15:28.928
in the Earth's system is connected.

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00:15:29.511 --> 00:15:32.181
If one part of the climate system

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00:15:32.264 --> 00:15:34.808
crosses its tipping point,

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00:15:34.892 --> 00:15:36.810
then that might make it more likely

255
00:15:36.894 --> 00:15:40.522
for other parts of the system
to also cross their critical threshold,

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00:15:40.606 --> 00:15:45.027
so you can think of this
in terms of dominoes.

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00:15:45.110 --> 00:15:46.779
If you tip one of them over,

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00:15:46.862 --> 00:15:49.198
then this might lead
to a cascading effect.

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00:15:49.281 --> 00:15:52.284
What is clear is
that with ongoing global warming,

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00:15:52.368 --> 00:15:54.078
we're increasing the risk

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00:15:54.161 --> 00:15:57.039
of crossing tipping points
in the Earth's system.

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00:16:00.376 --> 00:16:04.463
When we cross tipping points,
we unleash irreversible changes

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00:16:04.546 --> 00:16:07.508
that would mean that the planet
will go from our best friend

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00:16:07.591 --> 00:16:11.720
to a position where it dampens
and reduces the stress,

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00:16:11.804 --> 00:16:13.722
sucking up carbon dioxide,

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00:16:13.806 --> 00:16:17.059
taking up heat, absorbing impacts,

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00:16:17.142 --> 00:16:20.771
and tipping over to a point
where it could self-reinforce warming

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00:16:20.854 --> 00:16:22.189
and become a foe.

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00:16:23.983 --> 00:16:28.112
[David] The climate is, of course,
being warmed by greenhouse gases,

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00:16:28.195 --> 00:16:30.990
so it's in our emissions of these gases

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that we find a global tipping point.

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Since long before human beings appeared,
the Earth's average temperature

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00:16:38.706 --> 00:16:44.378
was closely tracking the concentration
of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

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00:16:45.254 --> 00:16:46.588
During the Holocene,

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00:16:46.672 --> 00:16:49.800
this concentration
remained relatively steady,

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00:16:49.883 --> 00:16:53.429
but that all changed
with the Industrial Revolution.

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00:16:53.512 --> 00:16:58.267
In 1988, we passed 350 parts per million

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00:16:58.350 --> 00:17:01.395
of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere.

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00:17:01.478 --> 00:17:04.565
This was the moment
we crossed the boundary.

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00:17:04.648 --> 00:17:08.527
Ever since then,
we've been at risk of triggering changes

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00:17:08.610 --> 00:17:10.904
that lead to runaway warming.

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[Johan] You go past 350 PPM

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00:17:14.116 --> 00:17:16.785
in the concentration
of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere,

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00:17:16.869 --> 00:17:19.621
and you enter the danger zone.

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00:17:20.164 --> 00:17:25.127
[David] So 350 parts per million
is the first of Johan's boundaries,

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00:17:25.210 --> 00:17:27.463
and we're already well beyond it.

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00:17:28.255 --> 00:17:32.885
[Johan] Right now, we've reached
a point of carbon dioxide concentration

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00:17:32.968 --> 00:17:37.014
in the atmosphere
of roughly 415 parts per million.

289
00:17:37.765 --> 00:17:40.267
We're starting to see the impacts of being

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00:17:40.350 --> 00:17:43.353
in the middle of the danger zone
in the climate boundary

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00:17:43.437 --> 00:17:45.981
in terms of rising frequency of droughts,

292
00:17:46.065 --> 00:17:47.941
and heatwaves, and floods,

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00:17:48.025 --> 00:17:50.778
and accelerated melting of ice,

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00:17:50.861 --> 00:17:56.033
and accelerated thawing of permafrost,
and higher frequency of forest fires.

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00:17:57.034 --> 00:17:59.828
[David] Up ahead is a second threshold.

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00:17:59.912 --> 00:18:05.501
We are rapidly approaching
450 parts per million carbon dioxide.

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[Johan] The planetary boundary
danger zone is defined

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00:18:09.296 --> 00:18:11.507
by the uncertainty range in science.

299
00:18:11.590 --> 00:18:14.927
Today, our assessment is
that the uncertainty range in science

300
00:18:15.010 --> 00:18:17.554
lies between 350 PPM,

301
00:18:17.638 --> 00:18:19.389
which is the boundary

302
00:18:19.473 --> 00:18:22.309
between the safe zone
and entering the danger zone,

303
00:18:22.392 --> 00:18:24.645
up to 450 PPM,

304
00:18:24.728 --> 00:18:28.482
which is when you exit the danger zone
and go into a really high-risk zone.

305
00:18:29.191 --> 00:18:31.401
[David] If we enter the high-risk zone,

306
00:18:31.485 --> 00:18:35.697
irreversible tipping points
become highly likely, if not inevitable,

307
00:18:35.781 --> 00:18:38.075
and this is a conservative estimate,

308
00:18:38.158 --> 00:18:42.371
given that the signs of tipping points
are all around us now.

309
00:18:42.454 --> 00:18:45.707
In simple terms,
the climate planetary boundary

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00:18:45.791 --> 00:18:48.460
is equal to 1.5 degrees Celsius warming,

311
00:18:48.544 --> 00:18:51.171
and it just provides all this evidence

312
00:18:51.255 --> 00:18:56.552
that we take a huge risk
if we allow ourselves to go beyond 1.5.

313
00:18:57.094 --> 00:19:00.305
We are at 1.1,
we're rapidly moving towards 1.5,

314
00:19:00.389 --> 00:19:04.977
and our only chance to stay
within the planetary boundary on climate

315
00:19:05.060 --> 00:19:07.271
is that we, you know,

316
00:19:07.354 --> 00:19:11.066
reach a fossil-fuel-free world economy
within the next 30 years.

317
00:19:14.153 --> 00:19:16.238
[David] While that target
for global temperature

318
00:19:16.321 --> 00:19:18.323
may have grabbed all the headlines,

319
00:19:18.407 --> 00:19:22.202
Johan knew that this was
only one part of a bigger picture.

320
00:19:22.828 --> 00:19:27.166
For our planet's stability relies
on more than just its climate.

321
00:19:27.916 --> 00:19:32.421
More research and evidence
had to be brought forward

322
00:19:32.504 --> 00:19:38.051
to conclude that we also have
four biosphere boundaries.

323
00:19:38.635 --> 00:19:41.263
Boundaries that are in the living Earth.

324
00:19:42.514 --> 00:19:45.392
These include the land configuration.

325
00:19:45.475 --> 00:19:48.187
How…
How is the composition of biomes on Earth?

326
00:19:49.479 --> 00:19:53.233
Er, the three rain forests,
the temperate forest,

327
00:19:53.317 --> 00:19:54.401
the boreal forest,

328
00:19:55.027 --> 00:19:56.069
the grasslands,

329
00:19:57.279 --> 00:19:58.322
the wetlands.

330
00:20:01.241 --> 00:20:02.910
Second is biodiversity.

331
00:20:02.993 --> 00:20:06.788
So all the species in water and on land.

332
00:20:10.209 --> 00:20:13.420
And then the third one, of course,
the bloodstream, the hydrological cycle.

333
00:20:14.379 --> 00:20:17.090
And then, finally,
the injection of nutrients

334
00:20:17.174 --> 00:20:21.053
that are fundamental for the functioning
of the living biosphere.

335
00:20:21.136 --> 00:20:22.930
The nitrogen and phosphorus cycles.

336
00:20:24.223 --> 00:20:26.558
[David] The first
of the biosphere boundaries,

337
00:20:26.642 --> 00:20:29.019
the composition of the habitats on Earth,

338
00:20:29.102 --> 00:20:33.732
is concerned with how we are now
transforming those natural habitats.

339
00:20:35.192 --> 00:20:38.153
We are fast approaching
a major tipping point

340
00:20:38.237 --> 00:20:41.740
in one of the planet's
largest remaining wildernesses.

341
00:20:43.200 --> 00:20:44.159
The Amazon.

342
00:20:47.204 --> 00:20:49.206
Carlos Nobre has been studying

343
00:20:49.289 --> 00:20:53.835
the rain forest's importance
to our planet's stability for decades.

344
00:20:53.919 --> 00:20:56.255
He was the first to sound the alarm.

345
00:20:57.422 --> 00:21:02.052
[in Portuguese] I saw the Amazon
in 1971-72 undisturbed.

346
00:21:05.430 --> 00:21:06.932
I saw the forest

347
00:21:08.267 --> 00:21:09.268
and the rivers.

348
00:21:10.602 --> 00:21:13.605
I would swim
in the Rio Negro with the piranhas,

349
00:21:13.689 --> 00:21:15.816
And nothing ever happened to me.

350
00:21:15.899 --> 00:21:19.987
[David] Since that time,
large swathes of Amazon have been cleared

351
00:21:20.070 --> 00:21:22.531
for livestock and soya farming.

352
00:21:22.614 --> 00:21:25.826
Carlos has discovered
that this is pushing us closer

353
00:21:25.909 --> 00:21:29.913
to triggering irreversible change
across much of what remains.

354
00:21:30.414 --> 00:21:35.585
[in Portuguese] In 1998,
we began the largest scientific experiment

355
00:21:35.669 --> 00:21:37.671
ever conducted in a tropical rain forest.

356
00:21:40.215 --> 00:21:42.634
[David] Many towers
were built in the rain forest

357
00:21:42.718 --> 00:21:45.220
to study how it creates its own climate.

358
00:21:46.221 --> 00:21:50.976
The data shows large parts
of the rain forest are drying out.

359
00:21:53.020 --> 00:21:54.479
[Carlos in Portuguese] In the Amazon,

360
00:21:54.563 --> 00:21:56.481
the dry season
lasts a maximum of three months.

361
00:21:56.565 --> 00:21:59.651
But with global warming

362
00:21:59.735 --> 00:22:03.530
and also forest degradation,
due to human activities,

363
00:22:03.613 --> 00:22:05.741
in particular, livestock and soya farming,

364
00:22:06.325 --> 00:22:11.580
the dry season has become six days longer

365
00:22:11.663 --> 00:22:14.750
each decade since the 1980s.

366
00:22:15.542 --> 00:22:18.253
[David] As the forest is reduced
and fragmented,

367
00:22:18.337 --> 00:22:20.547
its ability to recycle water

368
00:22:20.630 --> 00:22:24.009
and generate rain into the dry season
is diminished.

369
00:22:25.469 --> 00:22:28.764
If the dry season
becomes longer than four months,

370
00:22:28.847 --> 00:22:32.559
the jungle trees die
and are replaced by savanna.

371
00:22:32.642 --> 00:22:35.270
A process called savannization.

372
00:22:36.313 --> 00:22:40.150
There are signs that parts of the Amazon
are already changing.

373
00:22:41.693 --> 00:22:45.072
[in Portuguese] If deforestation
goes above 20 to 25% of the forest,

374
00:22:45.739 --> 00:22:48.867
with global warming increasing,

375
00:22:48.950 --> 00:22:53.789
we are likely to experience
an irreversible process of savannization

376
00:22:53.872 --> 00:22:58.877
that could affect 50 to 60%
of the entire Amazon forest.

377
00:23:00.128 --> 00:23:05.092
[David] We have already lost
close to 20% of the Amazon rain forest.

378
00:23:06.259 --> 00:23:12.015
We could be about to tip the Amazon
from planetary friend to planetary foe.

379
00:23:13.183 --> 00:23:16.686
As the jungle turns to savanna,
many trees die,

380
00:23:16.770 --> 00:23:19.398
and carbon is released
into the atmosphere.

381
00:23:19.981 --> 00:23:23.276
Carlos has calculated
the Amazon could release

382
00:23:23.360 --> 00:23:27.155
200 billion tons over the next 30 years.

383
00:23:27.239 --> 00:23:31.034
That's equivalent
to all the carbon emitted worldwide

384
00:23:31.118 --> 00:23:32.786
for the past five years.

385
00:23:33.537 --> 00:23:37.290
[Carlos] We are very, very close
to the tipping point.

386
00:23:38.291 --> 00:23:42.003
Are we concerned
about fighting the climate crisis?

387
00:23:42.087 --> 00:23:47.384
Are we, er, concerned
about keeping the carbon in the forest?

388
00:23:47.968 --> 00:23:49.719
Or "I don't care"?

389
00:23:53.390 --> 00:23:56.935
There is reason
to be deeply concerned at this point.

390
00:23:57.018 --> 00:24:00.564
We're still expanding agricultural land
into natural ecosystems.

391
00:24:00.647 --> 00:24:03.024
We are still cutting down the rain forest

392
00:24:03.108 --> 00:24:05.235
at a pace
that puts the whole system at risk.

393
00:24:07.612 --> 00:24:09.990
[David] And it's not
just the rain forests.

394
00:24:10.073 --> 00:24:15.996
Trees of every description are invaluable
in maintaining planetary stability.

395
00:24:16.913 --> 00:24:21.710
So much so that a loss of just 25%
of the world's forest cover

396
00:24:21.793 --> 00:24:25.255
risks triggering
catastrophic tipping points.

397
00:24:26.173 --> 00:24:29.301
But we have already cleared almost 40%.

398
00:24:29.926 --> 00:24:33.221
We are well into the danger zone
for this boundary.

399
00:24:39.019 --> 00:24:42.105
A second major consequence
of deforestation

400
00:24:42.189 --> 00:24:44.191
is a loss of biodiversity.

401
00:24:45.442 --> 00:24:46.401
Of nature.

402
00:24:47.444 --> 00:24:51.156
Biodiversity is the second
of the biosphere boundaries,

403
00:24:51.907 --> 00:24:55.160
because it underpins
our own ability to thrive on Earth.

404
00:24:56.369 --> 00:24:58.622
But we are not treating it well.

405
00:24:58.705 --> 00:25:02.125
Nature is being degraded
at a rate and a scale

406
00:25:02.209 --> 00:25:06.254
that is unprecedented,
er, in human history.

407
00:25:07.589 --> 00:25:13.803
[David] Anne Larigauderie is an ecologist
alarmed by the growing flood of evidence.

408
00:25:13.887 --> 00:25:17.641
Everywhere around the world,
nature is in decline.

409
00:25:19.267 --> 00:25:23.188
One million of species
of plants and animals

410
00:25:23.271 --> 00:25:26.608
out of an estimated total of eight million

411
00:25:26.691 --> 00:25:29.694
are threatened with extinction.

412
00:25:31.238 --> 00:25:34.616
If we continue with this negative trend,

413
00:25:34.699 --> 00:25:38.537
we might be headed
towards a sixth mass extinction.

414
00:25:41.373 --> 00:25:43.333
[David] In just 50 years,

415
00:25:43.416 --> 00:25:49.214
humanity has wiped out
68% of global wildlife populations.

416
00:25:49.297 --> 00:25:53.218
It's clear that we are
in the midst of a biodiversity crisis.

417
00:25:54.010 --> 00:25:56.221
Losing all of this fabric of life,

418
00:25:56.304 --> 00:26:01.309
all of this biodiversity,
is threatening our own life on Earth.

419
00:26:10.235 --> 00:26:13.405
With current negative trends
in biodiversity,

420
00:26:13.488 --> 00:26:16.950
we are not going to be able
to feed the planet.

421
00:26:17.033 --> 00:26:21.329
For that,
you need nature that functions well.

422
00:26:27.544 --> 00:26:30.338
[David] For Johan,
it was a story close to home

423
00:26:30.422 --> 00:26:32.340
that really hit him.

424
00:26:32.424 --> 00:26:38.179
I opened the newspaper and read this story
about UK scientists coming over to Sweden

425
00:26:38.263 --> 00:26:42.892
and stealing, you know,
short-haired bumblebee queens.

426
00:26:43.852 --> 00:26:46.146
And it read like they had,
you know, sneaked over at night

427
00:26:46.229 --> 00:26:49.441
and basically snatched
these hundred bumblebee queens

428
00:26:49.524 --> 00:26:51.359
to bring them back into the UK

429
00:26:51.443 --> 00:26:54.362
and to basically save
what they had been destroying.

430
00:26:56.573 --> 00:26:59.409
[David] Across Europe,
short-haired bumblebees

431
00:26:59.492 --> 00:27:02.287
are key pollinators for food crops.

432
00:27:02.370 --> 00:27:07.375
But by the 1990s, they had been
classed as extinct in the UK.

433
00:27:10.003 --> 00:27:14.591
Here, we have, you know, a country
that feels forced to go to another country

434
00:27:14.674 --> 00:27:17.302
and then steal back
some of its pollinators

435
00:27:17.385 --> 00:27:19.471
to have a functioning ecosystem.

436
00:27:19.554 --> 00:27:22.682
That's a…
Then, you know, to me personally,

437
00:27:22.766 --> 00:27:26.478
that was a moment of, er,
of realization that

438
00:27:27.812 --> 00:27:29.147
this is serious.

439
00:27:30.899 --> 00:27:34.110
[David] Around 70%
of the world's crop species

440
00:27:34.194 --> 00:27:37.447
rely to some extent on insect pollination.

441
00:27:38.698 --> 00:27:42.243
But the expansion
of intensive monoculture is leading

442
00:27:42.327 --> 00:27:44.871
to a drastic decline in insects.

443
00:27:46.122 --> 00:27:49.459
The irony is
that our global production of food is,

444
00:27:49.542 --> 00:27:50.835
in essence,

445
00:27:50.919 --> 00:27:55.006
wiping out the very thing
our food production relies on.

446
00:27:58.176 --> 00:28:01.346
It was not only proof
of one of the fundamentals

447
00:28:01.429 --> 00:28:02.722
in biodiversity research,

448
00:28:02.806 --> 00:28:05.433
which is
that biodiversity is not something

449
00:28:05.517 --> 00:28:08.687
we need to protect
just because of the beauty

450
00:28:08.770 --> 00:28:13.608
or some kind of moral responsibility
from one species, humans,

451
00:28:13.692 --> 00:28:15.652
to another species like flora and fauna.

452
00:28:15.735 --> 00:28:19.739
Oh no, it's the toolbox
for the functioning of our societies.

453
00:28:21.533 --> 00:28:25.495
It is a fundamental piece of the puzzle

454
00:28:25.578 --> 00:28:28.873
to make food production,
clean air, clean water,

455
00:28:28.957 --> 00:28:32.877
carbon sequestration,
nutrient recycling, to work.

456
00:28:36.131 --> 00:28:40.301
[David] Scientists have tried to calculate
the benefits that insects provide

457
00:28:40.385 --> 00:28:44.347
simply by going about their daily business
in large numbers,

458
00:28:44.431 --> 00:28:47.767
each kind providing
a subtly different service.

459
00:28:48.435 --> 00:28:52.439
But their value is mostly incalculable
until suddenly…

460
00:28:55.066 --> 00:28:55.942
they're gone.

461
00:28:58.069 --> 00:29:01.948
A planet without insects
is not a functioning planet.

462
00:29:05.577 --> 00:29:09.497
And, of course, the decline
is not just confined to insects.

463
00:29:10.707 --> 00:29:13.001
Wildlife has been squeezed out

464
00:29:13.084 --> 00:29:18.006
as our agriculture has expanded
across much of Earth's habitable land.

465
00:29:18.506 --> 00:29:24.012
Today, of all the birds on Earth,
only 30% are wild.

466
00:29:25.180 --> 00:29:27.390
And of all the mammals on the planet,

467
00:29:27.474 --> 00:29:31.978
wild species now make up,
by weight, only 4%.

468
00:29:33.104 --> 00:29:36.274
So where is the boundary for biodiversity?

469
00:29:36.941 --> 00:29:40.487
How much more of the natural world
can we afford to lose

470
00:29:40.570 --> 00:29:43.114
before our own societies collapse?

471
00:29:43.948 --> 00:29:48.119
There are many different tipping points
in the natural world,

472
00:29:48.203 --> 00:29:51.456
and it's difficult to translate concretely

473
00:29:51.539 --> 00:29:54.083
the planetary boundary
when it comes to biodiversity,

474
00:29:54.167 --> 00:29:56.961
because life is very complicated.

475
00:29:58.505 --> 00:30:00.757
[David] A single boundary
for the loss of nature

476
00:30:00.840 --> 00:30:04.552
may be hard to pinpoint
because of nature's complexity,

477
00:30:05.178 --> 00:30:06.679
but one thing is clear.

478
00:30:06.763 --> 00:30:09.390
We've already crossed well beyond it.

479
00:30:11.184 --> 00:30:13.478
[Johan] We are so deep in the red.

480
00:30:13.561 --> 00:30:16.231
We are in such a dangerous point

481
00:30:16.314 --> 00:30:21.319
when it comes to losing species on Earth
and destroying ecosystems on Earth

482
00:30:21.402 --> 00:30:24.280
that we have to halt
the loss of biodiversity

483
00:30:24.864 --> 00:30:26.366
as quickly as we ever can.

484
00:30:30.078 --> 00:30:33.790
Now is the time to set as a target

485
00:30:33.873 --> 00:30:37.460
for 2021, 2022,

486
00:30:37.544 --> 00:30:40.255
I mean really
at the early parts of this decade,

487
00:30:40.338 --> 00:30:43.675
that we must aim at a zero loss of nature.

488
00:30:46.427 --> 00:30:51.391
The equivalent of 1.5 degrees Celsius
maximum allowed warming

489
00:30:51.474 --> 00:30:54.519
would be zero loss of nature
from now onwards.

490
00:30:57.772 --> 00:31:02.443
[David] The third biosphere boundary
relates to the planet's bloodstream,

491
00:31:03.152 --> 00:31:06.614
for fresh water is
another of the fundamentals

492
00:31:06.698 --> 00:31:08.449
that society depends on.

493
00:31:09.158 --> 00:31:12.161
Did you know that you and I need roughly

494
00:31:12.245 --> 00:31:18.960
something like 3,000 liters of fresh water
per person every day for us to stay alive?

495
00:31:19.586 --> 00:31:24.007
And you say, "My God, 3,000 liters?
Three tons of water? How can that be?"

496
00:31:24.090 --> 00:31:28.553
Yes, we only need 50 liters
for hygiene and drinking.

497
00:31:29.804 --> 00:31:32.891
We, in the rich world,
use roughly another hundred

498
00:31:32.974 --> 00:31:35.351
for washing, our household needs.

499
00:31:35.435 --> 00:31:38.980
And then industry needs another 150,
so that's like 300 liters.

500
00:31:39.063 --> 00:31:43.651
But the rest,
the 2,500 or so, is for food.

501
00:31:44.360 --> 00:31:48.948
That's the fresh water we need to produce
everything that we have on our plates

502
00:31:49.032 --> 00:31:50.700
when we eat our food.

503
00:31:53.494 --> 00:31:57.290
[David] Fresh water
has a special significance for Johan.

504
00:31:57.373 --> 00:31:59.626
It was the subject of his PhD

505
00:31:59.709 --> 00:32:04.297
and many years of research
in the semi-arid regions of Africa.

506
00:32:05.256 --> 00:32:11.638
I spent from, you know, sunrise to sunset
walking around, sweating like crazy,

507
00:32:11.721 --> 00:32:13.806
collecting data, you know.

508
00:32:13.890 --> 00:32:15.975
Digging profiles in the soil,

509
00:32:16.059 --> 00:32:19.103
taking soil samples,
doing soil moisture measurements.

510
00:32:19.938 --> 00:32:22.690
Just getting wind speed data
and rainfall data.

511
00:32:24.233 --> 00:32:26.110
I've measured so much leaf area.

512
00:32:26.194 --> 00:32:27.987
You don't, you won't imagine, you know,

513
00:32:28.071 --> 00:32:32.867
how careful a scientist has to be
in just measuring in square millimeters

514
00:32:32.951 --> 00:32:35.912
the size of all the leaves on a plant.

515
00:32:38.206 --> 00:32:42.543
[David] It was the details he needed
to answer a much bigger question.

516
00:32:43.127 --> 00:32:46.172
How much water
do we need to feed the world?

517
00:32:47.256 --> 00:32:50.009
My tentative answer
when I was doing my MSc was,

518
00:32:50.093 --> 00:32:52.845
was that,
"Yes, there seemed to be enough water."

519
00:32:53.346 --> 00:32:55.348
[David] But there's
another side to the coin.

520
00:32:55.848 --> 00:32:59.185
Is there a global threshold
for fresh water use

521
00:32:59.268 --> 00:33:01.938
beyond which
the system starts to collapse?

522
00:33:03.481 --> 00:33:06.109
[Johan] We actually scanned off
all the river basins in the world

523
00:33:06.192 --> 00:33:12.865
and then, you know, defining
what's the minimum amount of runoff water

524
00:33:12.949 --> 00:33:18.121
any given river basin must have
to maintain the wetness in the system

525
00:33:18.204 --> 00:33:21.124
so that you have thriving ecosystems,

526
00:33:21.207 --> 00:33:24.502
good supply of water,
functioning river basins.

527
00:33:25.628 --> 00:33:29.424
[David] The volume of water
currently being extracted from each river

528
00:33:29.507 --> 00:33:33.386
reveals why many
are now in danger of running dry.

529
00:33:36.097 --> 00:33:42.061
[Johan] Globally, we're still,
as far as our assessment shows today,

530
00:33:42.145 --> 00:33:44.397
in the safe zone on fresh water,

531
00:33:44.480 --> 00:33:46.983
but we're rapidly moving
towards a danger zone.

532
00:33:52.697 --> 00:33:54.991
[David] The last
of the biosphere boundaries

533
00:33:55.074 --> 00:33:59.454
involves the flow of nutrients,
nitrogen, and phosphorus.

534
00:34:00.038 --> 00:34:03.708
They are the essential components
of all living things,

535
00:34:03.791 --> 00:34:06.502
the key ingredients in fertilizers.

536
00:34:07.170 --> 00:34:11.841
Johan has witnessed firsthand
the impacts of their increasing use.

537
00:34:13.760 --> 00:34:18.181
He spent his childhood summers
on an island in the Baltic Sea.

538
00:34:19.223 --> 00:34:20.558
[Johan] We loved fishing.

539
00:34:20.641 --> 00:34:24.645
Most often, I fished
with my closest friend here, Anders,

540
00:34:24.729 --> 00:34:28.316
and my little brother Nicklaus. And…

541
00:34:28.399 --> 00:34:29.942
So there was often the three of us.

542
00:34:30.026 --> 00:34:33.905
Almost being able
to tell my mother and dad that,

543
00:34:33.988 --> 00:34:35.698
"So you want some fish for dinner?"

544
00:34:35.782 --> 00:34:39.118
and we would come home with a catch,
basically.

545
00:34:39.202 --> 00:34:41.662
One of the adventures was going out

546
00:34:42.789 --> 00:34:46.501
one, two nautical miles
out in the open Baltic,

547
00:34:47.418 --> 00:34:50.713
and that's where we could,
by hand, fishing cod.

548
00:34:52.256 --> 00:34:55.426
I was, at that time,
the best at rinsing the fish,

549
00:34:55.510 --> 00:34:58.304
so, after one hour,
I had to abandon the fishing,

550
00:34:58.387 --> 00:35:01.432
because we got so much cod
that the only way to bring it home

551
00:35:01.516 --> 00:35:05.561
was that we would actually
cut up the fish on site.

552
00:35:06.479 --> 00:35:09.607
So we would have
the seagulls just engulfing us,

553
00:35:09.690 --> 00:35:13.277
because there was so much,
er, you know, entrails

554
00:35:13.361 --> 00:35:16.364
and then pieces of fish
that I was then cutting off

555
00:35:16.447 --> 00:35:18.241
just to fit in the boat.

556
00:35:21.119 --> 00:35:25.832
And that was a cause of great,
great excitement as a kid to do that.

557
00:35:27.708 --> 00:35:31.838
A few decades later, today,
it's a completely different situation,

558
00:35:31.921 --> 00:35:36.467
and you see nobody trying
to go out to catch cod,

559
00:35:36.551 --> 00:35:39.011
because, er, it's just literally empty.

560
00:35:40.930 --> 00:35:46.894
It looks exactly the same, by the way,
as it did in the 1970s, 1980s

561
00:35:46.978 --> 00:35:49.480
when you look at it from above,

562
00:35:49.564 --> 00:35:53.401
but when you look at it from below,
it's something completely different.

563
00:35:55.194 --> 00:35:59.365
[David] When Johan was a boy,
the Baltic was a healthy environment

564
00:35:59.448 --> 00:36:02.410
dominated by predatory fish like cod.

565
00:36:03.119 --> 00:36:06.038
But while overfishing
removed many of the fish,

566
00:36:06.122 --> 00:36:09.834
it was fertilizers
washed off the surrounding fields

567
00:36:09.917 --> 00:36:12.170
that tipped the Baltic into disaster.

568
00:36:12.670 --> 00:36:15.673
It's now the world's most polluted sea.

569
00:36:18.551 --> 00:36:24.140
[Johan] It is when you have many
Baltic Sea equivalents across the planet

570
00:36:24.223 --> 00:36:27.185
that there is reason for deep concern,

571
00:36:27.268 --> 00:36:28.728
because it's a…

572
00:36:28.811 --> 00:36:34.734
It's a signal that the entire planet
is gradually losing its resilience

573
00:36:34.817 --> 00:36:36.736
and gradually becoming weaker and weaker.

574
00:36:39.238 --> 00:36:44.160
[David] Elena Bennett is an expert
on the impacts of fertilizers.

575
00:36:44.660 --> 00:36:48.497
We take nitrogen out of the air
and chemically convert it

576
00:36:48.581 --> 00:36:52.084
into a form
that is able to be used by plants,

577
00:36:52.168 --> 00:36:55.087
or, in the case of phosphorus,
we dig it up out of the ground.

578
00:36:55.171 --> 00:36:56.130
We mine it.

579
00:36:57.256 --> 00:37:01.510
We developed these chemical pathways
or ways to mine phosphorus

580
00:37:01.594 --> 00:37:03.804
that were much, much more efficient,

581
00:37:03.888 --> 00:37:07.391
and that basically doubled, tripled,

582
00:37:07.475 --> 00:37:12.939
or even quadrupled
the production of food around the world.

583
00:37:14.315 --> 00:37:17.109
[David] This was invaluable
in feeding a growing population,

584
00:37:17.693 --> 00:37:21.322
but we got into the habit
of applying far more fertilizer

585
00:37:21.405 --> 00:37:23.407
than the crops could actually use.

586
00:37:23.491 --> 00:37:26.244
The unused nutrients wash into rivers,

587
00:37:26.327 --> 00:37:28.537
over-fertilizing them too.

588
00:37:28.621 --> 00:37:31.040
A process called eutrophication.

589
00:37:32.124 --> 00:37:35.086
What we see are these algal blooms.

590
00:37:35.169 --> 00:37:40.591
Sort of looks like a blue-green scum
on top of the lake.

591
00:37:40.675 --> 00:37:42.551
They often smell terrible

592
00:37:42.635 --> 00:37:46.430
because we're smelling
the rotting of that algae.

593
00:37:47.348 --> 00:37:50.643
As it's decomposing, it uses up oxygen.

594
00:37:51.227 --> 00:37:54.563
[David] Reduced oxygen
changes the chemical composition

595
00:37:54.647 --> 00:37:59.777
of the sediment on the bottom of the lake,
causing it to release more phosphorus.

596
00:37:59.860 --> 00:38:01.988
[Elena] Soon as you have
a eutrophication problem,

597
00:38:02.071 --> 00:38:03.489
the lake sort of says,

598
00:38:03.572 --> 00:38:06.117
"Oh good, we're gonna make it worse,"

599
00:38:06.200 --> 00:38:09.620
and it just creates
a positive feedback cycle

600
00:38:09.704 --> 00:38:12.873
that creates
more and more and more phosphorus

601
00:38:12.957 --> 00:38:16.544
going into that lake
and essentially keeps it in that state.

602
00:38:17.962 --> 00:38:23.009
We also have the same issue
of eutrophication in oceans,

603
00:38:23.092 --> 00:38:27.179
where we get what are called dead zones
from the same nutrients,

604
00:38:27.263 --> 00:38:30.308
and we see those dead zones now

605
00:38:30.391 --> 00:38:33.394
in a few hundred places around the world.

606
00:38:36.355 --> 00:38:40.568
[David] Eutrophication in the ocean
may have been an important contributor

607
00:38:40.651 --> 00:38:44.864
to one of the world's
five previous mass extinction events.

608
00:38:45.573 --> 00:38:49.201
Already today,
some dead zones have expanded

609
00:38:49.285 --> 00:38:52.371
to cover tens of thousands
of square kilometers.

610
00:38:58.127 --> 00:39:00.838
Our overuse of phosphorus and nitrogen

611
00:39:00.921 --> 00:39:03.924
is one of the least known,
but most critical impacts

612
00:39:04.008 --> 00:39:05.634
we're having on the biosphere.

613
00:39:05.718 --> 00:39:09.013
We are already deep into the danger zone.

614
00:39:09.638 --> 00:39:12.725
[Elena] We are well across
the nutrient boundary.

615
00:39:12.808 --> 00:39:15.394
It's… It's not a thing
that we think about very often.

616
00:39:15.478 --> 00:39:21.150
I think we need to be taking this boundary
much more seriously than we currently are.

617
00:39:23.652 --> 00:39:28.741
[David] Nutrients, water, our forests,
biodiversity, and the climate.

618
00:39:28.824 --> 00:39:33.204
Five big components of our planet
that regulate stability

619
00:39:33.287 --> 00:39:35.539
and underpin our own survival.

620
00:39:39.377 --> 00:39:44.006
But Johan and his colleagues knew
that this still wasn't the full picture.

621
00:39:45.341 --> 00:39:48.386
They hadn't yet accounted
for a little-known drama

622
00:39:48.469 --> 00:39:50.638
that's playing out in the oceans.

623
00:39:55.351 --> 00:40:00.022
Its impact on our planet's stability
could outplay all others.

624
00:40:02.149 --> 00:40:05.653
When we emit CO2 into the atmosphere,

625
00:40:05.736 --> 00:40:09.573
about a third of that emissions
has ended up in the ocean.

626
00:40:09.657 --> 00:40:13.035
[David] Terry Hughes
has been a close collaborator with Johan

627
00:40:13.119 --> 00:40:14.370
over many years.

628
00:40:15.121 --> 00:40:17.289
[Terry] That has changed
the chemistry of the ocean.

629
00:40:17.790 --> 00:40:19.959
It has changed the pH

630
00:40:20.042 --> 00:40:23.379
and made it less alkaline, or more acidic.

631
00:40:23.462 --> 00:40:26.006
Hence the name "ocean acidification."

632
00:40:27.007 --> 00:40:29.718
[David] When carbon dioxide
dissolves in water,

633
00:40:29.802 --> 00:40:31.804
it creates carbonic acid.

634
00:40:32.638 --> 00:40:34.640
[Terry] The vulnerability
is in colder waters.

635
00:40:36.475 --> 00:40:38.394
[David] Over the past few decades,

636
00:40:38.477 --> 00:40:42.481
the world's ocean
has become 26% more acidic,

637
00:40:43.399 --> 00:40:46.444
and, for as long as
carbon dioxide concentrations

638
00:40:46.527 --> 00:40:48.696
in the atmosphere remain high,

639
00:40:48.779 --> 00:40:51.365
the ocean will continue acidifying.

640
00:40:52.825 --> 00:40:57.288
The acid reacts with chemicals
in the water called carbonate ions,

641
00:40:57.371 --> 00:40:59.206
reducing their concentration.

642
00:40:59.999 --> 00:41:03.335
[Terry] It affects
a broad suite of organisms,

643
00:41:03.419 --> 00:41:05.129
particularly those that need

644
00:41:05.212 --> 00:41:07.423
carbonate to grow their skeletons.

645
00:41:07.506 --> 00:41:10.426
Things like mollusks, oysters, mussels.

646
00:41:12.094 --> 00:41:15.514
[David] Ocean acidification
has an ominous history.

647
00:41:18.100 --> 00:41:20.895
Global changes in the acidification,

648
00:41:21.770 --> 00:41:25.483
the pH of the ocean,
can actually cause mass extinctions.

649
00:41:25.566 --> 00:41:29.570
We've seen that repeatedly
in the geological record.

650
00:41:29.653 --> 00:41:31.363
So as we manipulate

651
00:41:31.447 --> 00:41:36.035
the planet's climate,
we're literally playing with fire

652
00:41:36.118 --> 00:41:39.747
in terms of the unforeseen consequences

653
00:41:39.830 --> 00:41:45.252
of moving past these planetary boundaries
into uncharted territory.

654
00:41:46.462 --> 00:41:50.424
[David] We are still in the safe zone
for ocean acidification,

655
00:41:50.508 --> 00:41:52.968
but we're pushing towards the danger zone

656
00:41:53.052 --> 00:41:57.056
and potentially
a catastrophic mass extinction.

657
00:42:00.476 --> 00:42:02.686
For all the complexities of Earth,

658
00:42:02.770 --> 00:42:06.899
Johan and his colleagues discovered
that there are just nine systems

659
00:42:06.982 --> 00:42:08.776
that keep our planet stable.

660
00:42:09.860 --> 00:42:13.948
But they've not yet identified
where the boundaries lie for two of them.

661
00:42:14.740 --> 00:42:18.953
The first one is an assortment
of human-made pollutants.

662
00:42:19.620 --> 00:42:24.750
We call it "novel entities,"
and it is everything from nuclear waste

663
00:42:24.833 --> 00:42:27.461
to persistent organic pollutants

664
00:42:27.545 --> 00:42:30.047
to loading of heavy metals

665
00:42:30.130 --> 00:42:32.174
to microplastics.

666
00:42:33.634 --> 00:42:37.596
[David] Humans have created
100,000 new materials,

667
00:42:37.680 --> 00:42:42.685
any number of which could interact
with the environment in catastrophic ways.

668
00:42:44.270 --> 00:42:47.439
As of yet,
this boundary is not quantified.

669
00:42:47.523 --> 00:42:51.610
We simply don't know the long-term
or cumulative impacts

670
00:42:51.694 --> 00:42:54.071
of these polluting substances.

671
00:42:54.154 --> 00:42:58.117
But most have the potential
to cause planet-wide disruption

672
00:42:58.200 --> 00:43:00.369
if not controlled in some way.

673
00:43:03.956 --> 00:43:08.460
There's one form of pollutant
that is already having a global impact.

674
00:43:08.544 --> 00:43:11.589
So much so
that it has a boundary of its own.

675
00:43:12.506 --> 00:43:17.303
Aerosols are basically particles
in the atmosphere.

676
00:43:17.386 --> 00:43:21.098
They are what's called
air pollution particulates.

677
00:43:21.181 --> 00:43:26.395
75% of the aerosol pollution
is from fossil fuel combustion.

678
00:43:28.022 --> 00:43:30.858
We see them as hazy sky,

679
00:43:30.941 --> 00:43:35.529
because they intercept sunlight
and just scatter it like mirrors.

680
00:43:36.030 --> 00:43:38.741
And they cause
what's called "global dimming."

681
00:43:39.450 --> 00:43:44.663
[David] Veerabhadran has spent a lifetime
studying the air around and above us.

682
00:43:44.747 --> 00:43:48.042
The other way aerosols impact climate,

683
00:43:48.626 --> 00:43:52.713
because you're cutting sunlight,
which is the major energy source

684
00:43:52.796 --> 00:43:58.761
for driving the temperature of the planet,
these aerosols have caused some cooling.

685
00:43:58.844 --> 00:44:04.308
When you hear climate scientists like me
say that aerosols are cooling the planet

686
00:44:04.391 --> 00:44:07.686
and mask the warming,
you may think, "That's a good thing."

687
00:44:07.770 --> 00:44:10.356
But unfortunately, it's not.

688
00:44:11.440 --> 00:44:13.484
Because of this masking,

689
00:44:13.567 --> 00:44:18.113
we are still not seeing
the full greenhouse beast.

690
00:44:19.615 --> 00:44:22.451
[David] This cooling effect
from aerosols is masking

691
00:44:22.534 --> 00:44:26.455
about 40% of the effects
of global warming.

692
00:44:27.498 --> 00:44:29.875
And it comes at a high price.

693
00:44:29.958 --> 00:44:34.421
Air pollution kills
over seven million people every year

694
00:44:34.505 --> 00:44:39.927
and takes, on average, three years
off the life expectancy of each one of us.

695
00:44:44.640 --> 00:44:46.892
Where the boundary for air pollution lies

696
00:44:46.975 --> 00:44:49.561
has not yet
been scientifically determined.

697
00:44:53.357 --> 00:44:59.697
Just based on the 7.5 million deaths
by these particles,

698
00:44:59.780 --> 00:45:03.242
I would say we have already
crossed the boundary

699
00:45:03.325 --> 00:45:05.244
as far as aerosols are concerned.

700
00:45:06.662 --> 00:45:10.416
[David] Finally,
the ninth boundary is the ozone layer.

701
00:45:11.291 --> 00:45:15.003
It has the unique distinction
of being the only boundary

702
00:45:15.087 --> 00:45:17.214
where we're moving in the right direction.

703
00:45:19.383 --> 00:45:24.888
[Veerabhadran] The ozone intercepts
harmful ultraviolet radiation,

704
00:45:24.972 --> 00:45:28.308
which directly impacts our DNA

705
00:45:28.392 --> 00:45:31.770
and causes deadly diseases
like skin cancer.

706
00:45:32.396 --> 00:45:33.814
That is why,

707
00:45:33.897 --> 00:45:39.570
when the Antarctic ozone hole
was discovered in the 1980s,

708
00:45:40.821 --> 00:45:42.698
there was a global panic.

709
00:45:44.408 --> 00:45:46.452
[David] The discovery of the ozone hole

710
00:45:46.535 --> 00:45:50.372
caused by chemical pollutants
being released into the atmosphere

711
00:45:50.456 --> 00:45:53.584
persuaded nations
to phase out these chemicals.

712
00:45:55.127 --> 00:45:58.589
[Johan] It was quite fantastic
how the scientific warnings

713
00:45:58.672 --> 00:46:02.217
translated into political action.

714
00:46:02.301 --> 00:46:05.387
This is the first and only example

715
00:46:05.471 --> 00:46:08.807
that we can actually
manage the whole planet.

716
00:46:08.891 --> 00:46:11.852
We can actually return
into a safe operating space

717
00:46:11.935 --> 00:46:16.982
for a planetary boundary that we had
seriously gone into the high-risk zone,

718
00:46:17.608 --> 00:46:20.444
and we returned back
into a safe operating space.

719
00:46:22.571 --> 00:46:25.365
It was indeed fantastic to witness.

720
00:46:25.449 --> 00:46:28.702
Scientists raised the alarm,
and the world acted.

721
00:46:29.787 --> 00:46:32.164
Thanks to Johan and his colleagues,

722
00:46:32.247 --> 00:46:35.667
we now know the planet has nine boundaries

723
00:46:35.751 --> 00:46:37.836
and the risks we face by crossing them.

724
00:46:39.254 --> 00:46:43.050
Together with the ozone layer,
we are, at least for now,

725
00:46:43.133 --> 00:46:47.471
within the safe zone
for ocean acidification and fresh water.

726
00:46:48.222 --> 00:46:52.935
We don't yet know how close we are
to the danger zone for air pollution,

727
00:46:53.018 --> 00:46:56.772
or for all the other pollutants,
the novel entities.

728
00:46:57.815 --> 00:47:00.651
But most worryingly,
we have already exceeded

729
00:47:00.734 --> 00:47:03.487
at least four of the nine boundaries.

730
00:47:03.570 --> 00:47:08.033
Climate, forest loss,
nutrients, and biodiversity.

731
00:47:08.116 --> 00:47:11.662
We are now crossing
irreversible tipping points,

732
00:47:12.996 --> 00:47:15.999
and we are perilously close
to tipping the Earth

733
00:47:16.083 --> 00:47:20.504
into a state that is unable
to support our own civilizations.

734
00:47:21.964 --> 00:47:26.385
What we're seeing in the world today
verifies the planetary boundary framework.

735
00:47:26.468 --> 00:47:29.179
We can see so clear evidence that,

736
00:47:29.263 --> 00:47:31.223
because we're in the danger zone
on climate,

737
00:47:31.306 --> 00:47:34.726
because we're in the deep high-risk zone
on biodiversity loss,

738
00:47:34.810 --> 00:47:38.730
we start seeing increased drought,
impacts on the rain forest,

739
00:47:38.814 --> 00:47:42.150
the forest fires
in Australia and in the Amazon,

740
00:47:42.776 --> 00:47:46.530
the accelerated ice melt,
the collapse of coral reef systems.

741
00:47:51.201 --> 00:47:54.788
[David] For the scientists bearing witness
to these planetary changes,

742
00:47:54.872 --> 00:47:57.749
the loss is much more than just numbers.

743
00:47:58.917 --> 00:48:02.880
Terry Hughes has spent a lifetime
studying coral reefs.

744
00:48:03.547 --> 00:48:06.216
[Terry] A bleached coral
is very, very sick.

745
00:48:06.925 --> 00:48:10.387
[David] Corals bleach
when the waters around them get too warm,

746
00:48:10.470 --> 00:48:14.308
something that's happening
with increasing frequency and intensity

747
00:48:14.391 --> 00:48:16.476
as a consequence of global warming.

748
00:48:17.811 --> 00:48:21.064
In big thermal extremes,
like we've been seeing

749
00:48:21.148 --> 00:48:24.109
during mass bleaching events
in recent decades,

750
00:48:24.192 --> 00:48:26.069
they can actually die very, very quickly.

751
00:48:26.153 --> 00:48:27.070
They cook.

752
00:48:29.990 --> 00:48:33.327
The footprint of a bleaching event
is ten times bigger

753
00:48:33.410 --> 00:48:37.080
than the most extreme
Category 5 tropical cyclone.

754
00:48:37.581 --> 00:48:42.210
So they're off the scale
in terms of the size of the impact,

755
00:48:42.711 --> 00:48:46.214
and in terms of how frequently
they are occurring.

756
00:48:47.883 --> 00:48:50.302
[David] Terry studies
the Great Barrier Reef,

757
00:48:50.385 --> 00:48:52.679
the largest reef system in the world.

758
00:48:54.973 --> 00:48:58.310
Bleaching events
used to be localized and rare,

759
00:48:58.393 --> 00:49:00.479
but over the past two decades,

760
00:49:00.562 --> 00:49:04.316
marine heatwaves
have caused widespread bleaching.

761
00:49:06.068 --> 00:49:11.323
Three of the five biggest bleaching events
have occurred in the past five years.

762
00:49:15.911 --> 00:49:17.829
[Terry] We're worried
about that shrinking gap

763
00:49:17.913 --> 00:49:20.791
between one bleaching event
and the next one.

764
00:49:21.416 --> 00:49:24.002
We've already seen
back-to-back bleaching events

765
00:49:24.086 --> 00:49:26.338
occur for the first time
on the Great Barrier Reef

766
00:49:26.421 --> 00:49:30.258
in two consecutive summers
in 2016 and 2017.

767
00:49:32.052 --> 00:49:36.139
[David] Those gaps are critically
important if the corals are to recover.

768
00:49:36.848 --> 00:49:40.227
Half the reef's corals have already died.

769
00:49:44.731 --> 00:49:48.110
Terry's work involves
conducting aerial surveys

770
00:49:48.193 --> 00:49:51.321
to record the extent
of each bleaching event.

771
00:49:52.155 --> 00:49:56.535
[Terry] When we do our aerial surveys,
we fly as slowly as we can,

772
00:49:56.618 --> 00:50:00.247
as low as we can,
so we can see individual corals,

773
00:50:00.330 --> 00:50:04.501
and we can assess how many of them
are bleached white or not.

774
00:50:05.210 --> 00:50:06.545
[Terry] All the coral's bleached.

775
00:50:07.713 --> 00:50:08.714
[man] Yeah, that's bad.

776
00:50:09.548 --> 00:50:13.010
[Terry] You can actually see
a bleached reef from kilometers away,

777
00:50:13.093 --> 00:50:15.637
because it virtually glows.

778
00:50:15.721 --> 00:50:17.472
There's so much white coral on it.

779
00:50:18.390 --> 00:50:22.102
[Terry] So I've got very broad crest,
and just about everything's bleached.

780
00:50:23.770 --> 00:50:27.024
Those surveys have now been done
five times,

781
00:50:27.107 --> 00:50:28.734
and I have led three of those.

782
00:50:28.817 --> 00:50:33.447
The last three in 2016, 2017, and 2020.

783
00:50:33.530 --> 00:50:34.448
It's, um…

784
00:50:35.282 --> 00:50:37.743
It's a job I'd hoped I'd never have to do,

785
00:50:38.744 --> 00:50:41.788
because it's actually,
um, very confronting.

786
00:50:48.253 --> 00:50:49.087
Sorry.

787
00:50:51.214 --> 00:50:55.218
[David] We're heading for a future
in which the Great Barrier Reef

788
00:50:55.302 --> 00:50:56.970
is a coral graveyard.

789
00:51:00.057 --> 00:51:03.643
[Terry] The climate modelers
are telling us, the biologists,

790
00:51:04.269 --> 00:51:07.230
that business-as-usual carbon emissions

791
00:51:07.314 --> 00:51:09.941
will result
in back-to-back bleaching events

792
00:51:10.025 --> 00:51:13.111
every consecutive summer
by the end of this century.

793
00:51:13.945 --> 00:51:16.656
We've gone past
the tipping point for coral bleaching.

794
00:51:19.117 --> 00:51:21.620
Scientists and ecologists like myself

795
00:51:21.703 --> 00:51:25.749
have been talking for decades now
about global warming,

796
00:51:26.249 --> 00:51:31.379
and it has been frustrating,
um, that we haven't been listened to.

797
00:51:35.634 --> 00:51:36.510
I get angry.

798
00:51:37.928 --> 00:51:40.347
I don't get depressed. I get angry.

799
00:51:41.223 --> 00:51:44.267
There is a real reason to be frustrated,

800
00:51:45.727 --> 00:51:47.813
because the science is clear

801
00:51:47.896 --> 00:51:49.898
and has been communicated
for the past 30 years,

802
00:51:49.981 --> 00:51:51.942
and still
we're not moving in the right direction.

803
00:51:55.779 --> 00:51:56.780
I want you to panic.

804
00:51:57.989 --> 00:52:00.575
I want you to feel
the fear I feel every day.

805
00:52:01.243 --> 00:52:02.911
And then I want you to act.

806
00:52:02.994 --> 00:52:06.414
I want you to act
as you would in a crisis.

807
00:52:07.874 --> 00:52:11.378
I want you to act
as if the house was on fire.

808
00:52:12.420 --> 00:52:13.338
Because it is.

809
00:52:14.339 --> 00:52:16.842
[woman] The bush fires in Australia
have raged for months,

810
00:52:16.925 --> 00:52:19.052
destroying so much
of the country's east coast--

811
00:52:19.136 --> 00:52:23.140
[David] In 2020,
Australia endured a summer from hell.

812
00:52:23.223 --> 00:52:24.891
[man] And our only way out is now

813
00:52:24.975 --> 00:52:27.727
a treacherous gauntlet
of fallen trees and flames.

814
00:52:30.438 --> 00:52:34.401
[David] Fueled by record-breaking
temperatures and months of severe drought,

815
00:52:34.484 --> 00:52:37.445
50 million acres of lands
were incinerated.

816
00:52:41.449 --> 00:52:44.578
People fear
this will become the new normal.

817
00:52:46.496 --> 00:52:49.708
But the science says
there will be no normal.

818
00:52:53.128 --> 00:52:56.965
Daniella Teixeira studies
glossy black cockatoos,

819
00:52:57.048 --> 00:52:59.551
one of Australia's most vulnerable birds.

820
00:53:04.181 --> 00:53:07.726
[Daniella] Glossy black cockatoos
let you get really close to them.

821
00:53:07.809 --> 00:53:11.688
They will learn who you are,
and, in places where you visit regularly,

822
00:53:11.771 --> 00:53:14.316
they actually, I think,
get to know who you are,

823
00:53:14.399 --> 00:53:16.109
and so you can actually go up to them,

824
00:53:16.193 --> 00:53:17.944
sit underneath the tree
where they're feeding,

825
00:53:18.028 --> 00:53:19.738
and get to know the individual birds.

826
00:53:21.615 --> 00:53:23.533
[David] As soon as it was safe to do so,

827
00:53:23.617 --> 00:53:26.995
Daniella returned
to one of her main study sites

828
00:53:27.078 --> 00:53:30.582
on Kangaroo Island off South Australia.

829
00:53:38.298 --> 00:53:41.635
It's February.
Nesting season for the cockatoos.

830
00:53:49.601 --> 00:53:50.644
[exhales]

831
00:53:54.940 --> 00:53:57.567
There's no sign of any wildlife at all.

832
00:53:58.902 --> 00:53:59.819
Um…

833
00:54:01.821 --> 00:54:03.156
There's nothing left here.

834
00:54:06.576 --> 00:54:07.619
It just looks like

835
00:54:08.453 --> 00:54:09.913
complete carnage.

836
00:54:09.996 --> 00:54:12.999
It's almost like I'm not looking
at the spot that I know.

837
00:54:13.083 --> 00:54:16.294
Like it's almost like
this can't be the same spot,

838
00:54:16.878 --> 00:54:18.755
because it's so starkly different.

839
00:54:22.509 --> 00:54:24.302
Yeah, I've spent the last four years

840
00:54:24.386 --> 00:54:27.597
working in this very location, so this is…

841
00:54:27.681 --> 00:54:28.890
This is about, um…

842
00:54:30.267 --> 00:54:34.562
Yeah, this is about as hard as it gets.
This spot was really, um…

843
00:54:35.438 --> 00:54:37.899
Like there was a big commotion
every evening.

844
00:54:38.733 --> 00:54:41.069
We would have had young chicks
by this point.

845
00:54:41.820 --> 00:54:42.821
[sighs]

846
00:54:42.904 --> 00:54:45.115
This is… This is heartbreaking.

847
00:54:46.992 --> 00:54:47.909
Jesus.

848
00:54:48.952 --> 00:54:49.786
[sighs]

849
00:54:49.869 --> 00:54:50.745
[sniffs]

850
00:54:57.419 --> 00:54:58.545
I know this nest

851
00:54:59.963 --> 00:55:00.797
pretty well.

852
00:55:02.090 --> 00:55:04.301
It's absolutely horrible
to see it like this.

853
00:55:06.428 --> 00:55:07.846
And all that's left is…

854
00:55:08.596 --> 00:55:12.767
Is the iron collar
just burnt on the ground.

855
00:55:15.353 --> 00:55:17.063
Like, the iron collar is…

856
00:55:17.647 --> 00:55:20.358
Is what we put on the nest trees
to save them.

857
00:55:20.442 --> 00:55:21.776
To stop the possums

858
00:55:22.694 --> 00:55:23.528
from…

859
00:55:23.611 --> 00:55:25.488
From predating on the chicks.

860
00:55:26.072 --> 00:55:29.492
And just to see all around me
these iron collars just

861
00:55:30.618 --> 00:55:31.995
open on the ground.

862
00:55:34.247 --> 00:55:36.374
You know,
they weren't enough to save them.

863
00:55:40.253 --> 00:55:43.381
This is an ecological catastrophe.
There's no doubt about it.

864
00:55:44.591 --> 00:55:46.551
[David] The 2020 bushfires

865
00:55:46.634 --> 00:55:49.721
were the most devastating
in Australia's history.

866
00:55:50.221 --> 00:55:52.849
[Daniella] Climate scientists
have been talking about these events

867
00:55:52.932 --> 00:55:54.726
for a long time,

868
00:55:54.809 --> 00:55:59.022
and we were expecting
that this might happen,

869
00:55:59.105 --> 00:56:02.817
but I don't think
anybody expected it to be so soon

870
00:56:03.610 --> 00:56:05.070
or so severe.

871
00:56:06.571 --> 00:56:12.994
[David] Scientists estimate that the fires
killed or displaced three billion animals.

872
00:56:13.495 --> 00:56:16.414
[Daniella] 1.43 million mammals,

873
00:56:16.498 --> 00:56:19.501
2.46 billion reptiles,

874
00:56:19.584 --> 00:56:21.711
180 million birds,

875
00:56:22.253 --> 00:56:23.880
and 51 million frogs.

876
00:56:27.133 --> 00:56:30.095
These figures are so enormous,

877
00:56:30.845 --> 00:56:32.597
so consequential…

878
00:56:34.724 --> 00:56:36.351
I don't know how to make sense of them.

879
00:56:37.477 --> 00:56:40.480
That's not what we should be dealing with
as conservationists.

880
00:56:45.318 --> 00:56:47.195
I think this is a wake-up call.

881
00:56:49.280 --> 00:56:52.200
These black summer fires
really showed us that it's now,

882
00:56:52.283 --> 00:56:54.035
it's affecting us today,

883
00:56:54.119 --> 00:56:56.955
and this is gonna have
long-lasting consequences.

884
00:57:00.125 --> 00:57:01.292
Like, where can he go?

885
00:57:04.504 --> 00:57:06.631
[David] Wildfires and coral bleaching

886
00:57:06.714 --> 00:57:10.927
are caused
by us overstepping the climate boundary.

887
00:57:13.346 --> 00:57:18.768
But it is the destruction of nature
that lies behind what has been by far

888
00:57:18.852 --> 00:57:23.106
the most far-reaching impact
of our destabilizing planet.

889
00:57:24.065 --> 00:57:26.192
The COVID-19 pandemic.

890
00:57:26.276 --> 00:57:29.487
It affected your life as it affected mine.

891
00:57:30.280 --> 00:57:35.827
COVID-19 was a planetary impact
we were ill-equipped to deal with.

892
00:57:36.453 --> 00:57:38.663
It overwhelmed health services

893
00:57:39.497 --> 00:57:42.333
and brought the global economy
to its knees.

894
00:57:48.047 --> 00:57:49.299
Though it surprised many,

895
00:57:49.382 --> 00:57:53.678
the World Health Organization
had forewarned that it was coming.

896
00:57:54.179 --> 00:57:56.055
I think it was a question of time.

897
00:57:56.139 --> 00:58:01.644
Er, we were destroying nature.
We were destroying our ecosystems.

898
00:58:03.062 --> 00:58:08.276
We have been doing
very aggressive agricultural practices.

899
00:58:08.359 --> 00:58:12.864
We were doing an incredible,
very aggressive deforestation.

900
00:58:14.157 --> 00:58:18.745
If you add to that the fact
that we live in very polluted cities

901
00:58:18.828 --> 00:58:21.873
with a very high population density,

902
00:58:21.956 --> 00:58:25.502
I think all of those elements
were kind of contributing to create

903
00:58:25.585 --> 00:58:29.589
the perfect scenario
for any new virus to spread.

904
00:58:31.841 --> 00:58:35.970
[David] Zoonotic diseases emerge
and spread into the human population

905
00:58:36.054 --> 00:58:38.515
when nature's resilience is weakened.

906
00:58:39.516 --> 00:58:43.186
It's not healthy nature
that causes pandemics.

907
00:58:43.811 --> 00:58:46.189
In terms of transmission of the diseases,

908
00:58:46.272 --> 00:58:49.609
it's only with certain species
under certain circumstances

909
00:58:49.692 --> 00:58:54.113
and when we invade their environment
in a very aggressive way.

910
00:58:54.197 --> 00:58:58.243
So, for the human health,
animal health, and environmental health,

911
00:58:58.326 --> 00:59:00.078
the three are so much linked.

912
00:59:01.996 --> 00:59:04.374
Exposure to nature is good,

913
00:59:04.457 --> 00:59:07.168
provided we do not destroy nature

914
00:59:07.252 --> 00:59:12.090
and we not destroy the ecosystems
where other species are able to live.

915
00:59:15.009 --> 00:59:20.223
COVID-19, I feel, has made us understand

916
00:59:20.306 --> 00:59:21.891
for the first time that,

917
00:59:21.975 --> 00:59:25.853
"Oh my God, something that goes wrong
somewhere else on the planet

918
00:59:25.937 --> 00:59:28.606
can suddenly hit the whole world economy

919
00:59:28.690 --> 00:59:31.317
and can change my life,
like, immediately."

920
00:59:36.155 --> 00:59:38.449
The appearance of COVID-19

921
00:59:38.533 --> 00:59:41.911
was a clear warning
that all is not well with our planet.

922
00:59:42.495 --> 00:59:47.917
But it's also given us an opportunity
to rebuild in a new direction.

923
00:59:48.710 --> 00:59:52.088
Now that Johan and his colleagues
have turned on the headlights,

924
00:59:52.171 --> 00:59:54.382
we can clearly see the boundaries.

925
00:59:54.465 --> 00:59:58.094
We can see the path back to a safe space,

926
00:59:58.177 --> 01:00:00.138
to a more resilient future.

927
01:00:01.055 --> 01:00:02.390
It is achievable.

928
01:00:04.350 --> 01:00:08.104
It's not a question anymore
of doing economic growth here

929
01:00:08.187 --> 01:00:11.983
and then do some
environmental impact reduction over here.

930
01:00:12.066 --> 01:00:16.154
Oh no, now it's a question
of framing the entire growth model

931
01:00:16.237 --> 01:00:17.739
around sustainability,

932
01:00:17.822 --> 01:00:21.576
and have the planet
guide everything we do.

933
01:00:23.286 --> 01:00:27.874
[David] An immediate priority
is to reduce carbon emissions to zero

934
01:00:27.957 --> 01:00:32.253
and stabilize global temperature
as low as we possibly can.

935
01:00:33.087 --> 01:00:38.343
The window is still open for us
to be able to avoid passing two degrees.

936
01:00:39.510 --> 01:00:42.388
It's even open to come to 1.5.

937
01:00:43.181 --> 01:00:45.099
But the window is really just…

938
01:00:45.183 --> 01:00:46.976
It's… It's barely open.

939
01:00:47.852 --> 01:00:50.396
[David] Since the beginning
of the Industrial Revolution,

940
01:00:50.480 --> 01:00:56.486
we have emitted
2,400 billion tons of carbon dioxide.

941
01:00:57.111 --> 01:00:59.489
To stay below 1.5 degrees,

942
01:00:59.572 --> 01:01:03.451
we must emit
less than 300 billion tons more.

943
01:01:04.160 --> 01:01:08.706
If we continue to emit
40 billion tons each year,

944
01:01:08.790 --> 01:01:12.585
our budget will run out
within seven years.

945
01:01:13.378 --> 01:01:15.129
Of course, we cannot shut down

946
01:01:15.922 --> 01:01:19.592
all energy utilities in the world
overnight,

947
01:01:19.676 --> 01:01:21.511
so the only orderly way to do this

948
01:01:21.594 --> 01:01:25.223
is to bend
the global curve of emissions now,

949
01:01:25.306 --> 01:01:27.100
because that's what all science shows.

950
01:01:27.183 --> 01:01:30.812
Now is the last chance we have
to bend the global curve.

951
01:01:31.604 --> 01:01:33.940
What is the most rapid pace
of emission reduction

952
01:01:34.023 --> 01:01:36.609
that we can accomplish?

953
01:01:37.193 --> 01:01:41.823
Well, there's no study that suggests
that we can go faster than 6, 7% per year,

954
01:01:42.490 --> 01:01:46.744
because 6, 7% per year,
that is cutting by half in a decade.

955
01:01:48.037 --> 01:01:50.331
[David] Cutting our emissions
in half every decade

956
01:01:50.415 --> 01:01:53.459
is an exponential rate of change.

957
01:01:54.043 --> 01:01:56.254
[Johan] Anyone can adopt this pace.

958
01:01:56.337 --> 01:01:58.631
I mean,
you and I can do it as individuals.

959
01:01:58.715 --> 01:02:02.009
We can say,
"Okay, from now on, myself and my family

960
01:02:02.093 --> 01:02:04.971
will try to cut emissions
by half every decade,"

961
01:02:05.054 --> 01:02:08.099
which would mean
that you would be fossil fuel-free

962
01:02:08.850 --> 01:02:11.310
in one generation, in 30 years' time.

963
01:02:11.394 --> 01:02:13.229
And a company can do it,
or a country can do it,

964
01:02:13.312 --> 01:02:16.774
or the world can/must do it.

965
01:02:18.818 --> 01:02:21.529
[David] Phasing out fossil fuels
will, of course,

966
01:02:21.612 --> 01:02:24.657
begin our journey
back towards the safe space

967
01:02:24.741 --> 01:02:26.909
within the climate boundary.

968
01:02:27.910 --> 01:02:31.164
And it will also
substantially reduce air pollution

969
01:02:31.247 --> 01:02:34.000
and also slow down ocean acidification

970
01:02:34.083 --> 01:02:37.712
as well as reduce pressure
on biodiversity.

971
01:02:38.546 --> 01:02:40.590
But zero emissions are not enough.

972
01:02:41.716 --> 01:02:46.679
We must also draw down the carbon
that's already overheating the planet,

973
01:02:47.305 --> 01:02:50.266
and there's one very effective way
to do this.

974
01:02:51.350 --> 01:02:53.102
Plant more trees.

975
01:02:56.773 --> 01:02:59.484
A global effort to plant billions of trees

976
01:02:59.567 --> 01:03:04.655
could be one of the most cost-effective
and achievable solutions

977
01:03:04.739 --> 01:03:06.324
to the climate crisis.

978
01:03:07.784 --> 01:03:13.331
And growing more trees is vital
to offset the carbon we continue to emit

979
01:03:13.414 --> 01:03:17.960
as we strive to reach zero emissions
as fast as we can.

980
01:03:18.795 --> 01:03:21.214
Of course, capturing carbon

981
01:03:21.297 --> 01:03:24.550
is only one of the benefits
that trees provide.

982
01:03:26.093 --> 01:03:30.389
Cheikh Mbow has collaborated with Johan
for many years.

983
01:03:30.473 --> 01:03:32.975
He's an advocate for trees.

984
01:03:33.059 --> 01:03:39.315
[in Wolof] Trees prevent soil erosion.

985
01:03:40.525 --> 01:03:46.739
Without trees, there will be less rain.

986
01:03:48.324 --> 01:03:50.618
If we plant trees in the fields,

987
01:03:51.118 --> 01:03:54.580
the fertility of the fields
and, therefore, production will increase.

988
01:03:56.999 --> 01:03:59.126
We want to bring the tree back
to its place

989
01:03:59.210 --> 01:04:02.380
at the center of sustainable development.

990
01:04:02.964 --> 01:04:05.424
Our job is to make sure
that wherever a tree can grow,

991
01:04:05.508 --> 01:04:06.509
we plant one.

992
01:04:08.553 --> 01:04:11.556
[David] Planting trees
and restoring our natural world

993
01:04:11.639 --> 01:04:16.644
will, of course, have huge benefits
for our planet's biodiversity,

994
01:04:16.727 --> 01:04:21.357
but it will also help
to stabilize our climate, our fresh water,

995
01:04:21.440 --> 01:04:24.652
and have enormous benefits
for our food production

996
01:04:24.735 --> 01:04:28.239
and all the other services
that nature provides for free.

997
01:04:32.827 --> 01:04:37.164
Just imagine, for the first time
since the dawn of humanity,

998
01:04:37.248 --> 01:04:39.000
we could wake up one morning

999
01:04:39.083 --> 01:04:43.546
on a planet with more wildlife
than there was when we went to sleep.

1000
01:04:47.466 --> 01:04:51.470
There's another transformation
that is almost unbelievably simple,

1001
01:04:51.554 --> 01:04:55.308
but it's key to staying
within our planet's boundaries.

1002
01:04:55.391 --> 01:04:57.560
It can be adopted by you or me.

1003
01:04:57.643 --> 01:05:02.273
In fact, by anyone with the freedom
to choose what food they eat.

1004
01:05:07.778 --> 01:05:11.115
[Johan] Now, the exciting thing
is the diet that is more flexitarian,

1005
01:05:11.198 --> 01:05:14.660
less red meat, more plant-based protein,

1006
01:05:14.744 --> 01:05:17.830
more fruit and nuts, less starchy foods,

1007
01:05:18.331 --> 01:05:20.499
if you take that diet

1008
01:05:21.042 --> 01:05:23.169
and assume that all people
would eat healthy food,

1009
01:05:23.669 --> 01:05:27.214
we could actually come back
within a safe operating space,

1010
01:05:27.298 --> 01:05:30.301
not only on climate,
but also on biodiversity,

1011
01:05:30.384 --> 01:05:33.596
on land, on water,
on nitrogen and phosphorus.

1012
01:05:33.679 --> 01:05:36.432
Quite exciting that eating healthy food

1013
01:05:36.515 --> 01:05:41.479
might be the single most important way
of contributing to save the planet.

1014
01:05:47.026 --> 01:05:49.987
There's one more transformation
that is vital.

1015
01:05:50.071 --> 01:05:52.907
It would bring us
back towards the safe zone

1016
01:05:52.990 --> 01:05:55.159
within all our planet's boundaries.

1017
01:05:55.242 --> 01:05:58.162
Imagine a world without waste,

1018
01:05:58.245 --> 01:06:00.206
with nothing to throw away.

1019
01:06:04.669 --> 01:06:07.672
Our waste is created by design.

1020
01:06:07.755 --> 01:06:09.090
When we make products,

1021
01:06:09.173 --> 01:06:12.760
we rarely build in the means
to recover the raw materials.

1022
01:06:13.344 --> 01:06:17.139
If we turn that linear system
into a circular one,

1023
01:06:17.223 --> 01:06:19.976
designing products
so that the raw materials

1024
01:06:20.059 --> 01:06:21.686
can all be recovered,

1025
01:06:21.769 --> 01:06:24.397
our use of resources could be infinite.

1026
01:06:24.981 --> 01:06:28.985
[Johan] So more and more evidence
shows that circular economies

1027
01:06:29.068 --> 01:06:32.863
are fundamental
if we are to stand a chance

1028
01:06:32.947 --> 01:06:38.703
of providing good lives
for all citizens in the world.

1029
01:06:40.913 --> 01:06:45.126
[David] Eliminating waste would bring us
closer to the safe zone for climate,

1030
01:06:45.209 --> 01:06:51.465
biodiversity, and especially nutrients,
novel entities, and air pollution.

1031
01:06:55.136 --> 01:06:58.973
The planetary boundaries
have given us a clear path ahead.

1032
01:06:59.056 --> 01:07:02.560
Simple things,
like choosing renewable energy,

1033
01:07:02.643 --> 01:07:05.187
eating healthy food, planting trees,

1034
01:07:05.271 --> 01:07:07.023
saying no to waste.

1035
01:07:07.106 --> 01:07:10.568
Together, these could transform
our future on Earth.

1036
01:07:11.485 --> 01:07:14.739
And the magic in this
is that these transformations

1037
01:07:14.822 --> 01:07:18.409
would also improve
all our lives right now.

1038
01:07:20.286 --> 01:07:23.039
[Johan] Even if you don't care at all
about the planet

1039
01:07:23.122 --> 01:07:25.708
and even if you don't care too much
about equity in the world,

1040
01:07:25.791 --> 01:07:28.794
but rather are selfish,
just focusing on yourself

1041
01:07:28.878 --> 01:07:32.048
and your family and your own life,

1042
01:07:32.715 --> 01:07:36.427
which I think
is a very respectful position to have

1043
01:07:36.510 --> 01:07:39.513
as a human being
struggling with everyday life,

1044
01:07:40.139 --> 01:07:43.225
still you would want to come back
to a safe operating space.

1045
01:07:44.727 --> 01:07:48.773
Everyone would benefit immediately
of having clean air,

1046
01:07:48.856 --> 01:07:51.817
giving more healthy
and longer life expectancies.

1047
01:07:51.901 --> 01:07:53.652
Your children would be healthier.

1048
01:07:54.862 --> 01:07:57.281
Coming back within planetary boundaries

1049
01:07:57.364 --> 01:08:00.743
also means you are more likely to live in,

1050
01:08:00.826 --> 01:08:04.705
in societies with, you know,
stable markets and stable jobs,

1051
01:08:04.789 --> 01:08:09.251
which then reduces risks of conflict
and instability where you're living.

1052
01:08:09.335 --> 01:08:10.461
So, all in all,

1053
01:08:11.170 --> 01:08:12.922
you want to be in a safe space,

1054
01:08:13.005 --> 01:08:16.550
rather than being in a danger zone
where everything is just in flux.

1055
01:08:19.762 --> 01:08:22.098
What we do between 2020 and 2030,

1056
01:08:22.181 --> 01:08:24.600
from the evidence we have today,
my conclusion is,

1057
01:08:24.683 --> 01:08:27.686
it will be the decisive decade
for humanity's future on Earth.

1058
01:08:29.355 --> 01:08:31.273
The future's not determined.

1059
01:08:31.357 --> 01:08:33.025
The future is in our hands.

1060
01:08:33.109 --> 01:08:36.278
What happens over the next centuries

1061
01:08:36.362 --> 01:08:39.824
will be determined
of how we play our cards this decade.

1062
01:08:41.075 --> 01:08:43.953
[David] It's a remarkable time
to be alive,

1063
01:08:44.036 --> 01:08:48.749
but it also carries great responsibility
to act decisively.

1064
01:08:50.084 --> 01:08:52.419
We have no time to lose.

1065
01:08:54.171 --> 01:08:57.216
[Johan] What would we do
if we had had a report tomorrow morning

1066
01:08:57.299 --> 01:08:59.718
saying that an asteroid
is on its way to Earth?

1067
01:08:59.802 --> 01:09:03.597
Well, I'm sure that we would
just put everything else aside

1068
01:09:03.681 --> 01:09:07.143
and just focus then
on solving the problem.

1069
01:09:07.810 --> 01:09:09.937
Cost whatever cost it takes.

1070
01:09:11.105 --> 01:09:13.107
[David] It is now clear from the science

1071
01:09:13.190 --> 01:09:18.654
that the planetary crisis we are facing
requires the same united response.

1072
01:09:18.737 --> 01:09:20.281
[Johan] I would say that we do not have

1073
01:09:20.364 --> 01:09:22.575
environmental problems
in the world anymore.

1074
01:09:22.658 --> 01:09:24.326
Destabilizing the planet…

1075
01:09:24.410 --> 01:09:29.748
The risk of destabilizing the planet
is a question of security and stability

1076
01:09:29.832 --> 01:09:32.585
for all societies in the world.

1077
01:09:32.668 --> 01:09:35.379
Therefore, it is a question
for the Security Council.

1078
01:09:35.462 --> 01:09:39.175
I think one should put the planetary
boundaries right at the center

1079
01:09:39.258 --> 01:09:44.889
of the most strategic top governance level
we have in the world,

1080
01:09:44.972 --> 01:09:47.141
which is
the United Nations Security Council.

1081
01:09:48.726 --> 01:09:53.689
[David] Such a global response
is now within reach as never before.

1082
01:09:55.441 --> 01:09:58.444
There's something bigger
happening right now,

1083
01:09:58.527 --> 01:10:01.572
which is that one species, we humans,

1084
01:10:01.655 --> 01:10:04.408
are such a dominant force on the planet

1085
01:10:04.491 --> 01:10:07.203
in a way
that we haven't seen across the eons

1086
01:10:07.286 --> 01:10:09.371
over the past four billion years.

1087
01:10:13.876 --> 01:10:17.755
Mother Earth is under continuous diagnosis

1088
01:10:17.838 --> 01:10:20.591
and continuous observation.

1089
01:10:20.674 --> 01:10:23.928
The digitalization
and the hyper-connectivity

1090
01:10:24.011 --> 01:10:27.806
in the world of science
and in the world of observation

1091
01:10:27.890 --> 01:10:31.685
now means we've covered
the whole planet with knowledge.

1092
01:10:32.311 --> 01:10:34.355
What if we're now entering

1093
01:10:34.939 --> 01:10:38.567
a new, unique geological epoch

1094
01:10:38.651 --> 01:10:41.278
that is not only geophysically defined,

1095
01:10:41.362 --> 01:10:44.073
but also defined by the fact that we have

1096
01:10:44.156 --> 01:10:46.533
a new consciousness
embedded inside the planet?

1097
01:10:55.417 --> 01:10:59.255
Thanks to the work
of scientists like Johan Rockström,

1098
01:10:59.338 --> 01:11:04.510
we now have the capacity to act
as Earth's conscience, its brain.

1099
01:11:05.135 --> 01:11:08.514
Thinking and acting
with one unified purpose

1100
01:11:08.597 --> 01:11:13.185
to ensure that our planet
forever remains healthy and resilient.

1101
01:11:13.811 --> 01:11:14.937
The perfect home.