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[man] You could think of yourself
driving in a mountainous area

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with the road circling up the mountain.

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An overpowered engine
driving much, much too fast,

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driving without any headlights.

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Cliffs that you're
at risk of falling over.

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[engine revving]

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You want, of course,
to turn on the headlights,

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and that is
what science tries to do all the time.

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To give us the headlights
so we can see what risks we're facing.

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Recent discoveries made by scientists

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studying the ways
in which our planet works

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are surely of the greatest importance
for all of us.

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Their insights are deeply troubling.

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Nonetheless, they also give us hope,

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because they show us
how we can fix things.

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One of those who has devoted his life

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to studying
these globally important problems

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comes from Sweden.

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Johan Rockström.

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What he and his colleagues
around the world have discovered

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is perhaps the most important
scientific insight of our times.

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Johan has given us hope.

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Hope that there is
a way out of this crisis.

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And once you too have heard it,

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you may never look at the world
in the same way again.

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[Johan] This is not about the planet.

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This is about us. It is about our future.

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We still have a chance.

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The window is still open
for us to have a future for humanity.

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That I think is the beauty
of where we are today.

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[David Attenborough]
Our understanding of how our planet works

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is always advancing.

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We can now see more clearly than ever

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how life's intricate complexity
is essential for our own survival.

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But biodiversity is collapsing,
and our climate is changing.

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Johan Rockström has focused
on what keeps our planet stable.

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We're the first generation,
thanks to science,

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to be informed that we may be undermining

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the stability
and the ability of planet Earth

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to support human development
as we know it.

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This comes from ice core data,

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and I think that this is
the most important graph we have today.

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[David] The graph is a revelation.

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It shows global temperature variability

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over the past 100,000 years

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since the first appearance
of modern humans.

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We were jumping between plus-minus
ten degrees Celsius in a decade.

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We had, to put it simple, a rough time.

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[David] What's critical
is that the temperature stabilized

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just 10,000 years ago.

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[Johan] You can just see from the graph
that this is a remarkable,

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not to say almost miraculously stable,
interglacial period.

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[David] Geologists have given
this period of stability

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its own special name.

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It's called the Holocene.

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The Holocene is remarkable.

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It is a warm period
where the planet's global mean temperature

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varies between
just plus-minus one degree Celsius

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during the entire period.

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Plus-minus one.

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…is plus-minus one degree Celsius.

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This is what established
the modern world as we know it.

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[David] The Holocene's stable temperatures

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gave us a stable planet.

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Sea levels stabilized.

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For the first time,

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we had predictable seasons
and reliable weather.

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This stability was fundamental.

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For the first time,
civilization was possible,

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and humanity wasted no time
in taking advantage.

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We domesticated rice, wheat,

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teff, maize, sorghum,

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on different continents
roughly at the same time.

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And off we go on the civilizational
journey as we know it.

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This is the interglacial stage
that has enabled us

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to develop
modern civilizations as we know it.

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The Holocene is the only
state of the planet we know for certain

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can support
the modern world as we know it.

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[David] Since the dawn of civilization,

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we have depended on
this stable state of the planet.

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A planet with two permanent ice caps,

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flowing rivers,

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a cloak of forests,

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reliable weather,

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and an abundance of life.

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Throughout the Holocene,

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this stable planet
has given us food to eat,

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water to drink, and clean air to breathe.

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But we have just left the Holocene behind.

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The exponential rise
in human pressures on planet Earth

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has now reached a stage

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where we have now
created our own geological epoch.

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[David] Scientists recently declared
that the Holocene has ended

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and that we are now in the Anthropocene,

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the age of humans,

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because we now are
the primary drivers of change

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on planet Earth.

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We have converted
half the world's habitable land

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to grow crops and rear livestock.

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We move more sediment and rock
than all the Earth's natural processes.

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More than half of the ocean
is actively fished.

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Nine out of ten of us
breathe unhealthy air.

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And, in a single lifetime,

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we have warmed the Earth
by more than one degree.

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I would say that perhaps
the most dire message to humanity

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is the following.

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So we have, in just 50 years,

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managed to push ourselves

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outside of a state that we've been in
for the past 10,000 years.

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Are we at risk
of destabilizing the whole planet?

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It's just
a mind-boggling situation to be in.

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For the first time,
we have to seriously consider

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the risk of destabilizing
the entire planet.

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[David] Johan's ambition
has been to see the big picture.

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To draw
from a global network of knowledge,

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to learn what keeps
the entire planet stable.

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What are the systems
that determine the state of the planet?

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And if they are five or if they were 30,

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we did not know when we started.

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We just open-ended asked the question,

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"Can we identify the systems
that regulate the state of the planet?"

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[David] Those systems
have held the planet in its stable state

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throughout the Holocene.

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As we increase our pressures on Earth,

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there is a danger that those systems
will start to break down.

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That we will
break through Earth's boundaries,

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causing the stability
that we depend on to collapse.

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[Johan] I was absolutely convinced
that we wanted

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to dig into this challenge
of defining planetary boundaries,

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and can we identify a quantitative point

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beyond which we risk
triggering nonlinear changes?

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And that becomes your boundary.

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[David] If scientists
could define our planet's boundaries,

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could they also give us the road map
to guide us out of our current crisis?

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To show us not only how to avoid collapse,

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but how to secure
our own thriving future on planet Earth?

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The first and most obvious boundary
is well known to us all.

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With global temperatures now warmer

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than they've been
since the dawn of civilization,

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there is a danger that we have already
crossed the boundary in Earth's climate.

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Perhaps the most alarming evidence of this

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is in the change of our planet's ice.

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As a Swede,
Johan feels this more keenly than most.

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[Johan] As a kid in Sweden,
like all children in Sweden,

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we learn that the south top at Kebnekaise
is the highest peak in this country.

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And it's something that is just ingrained

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in the identity
of being a Swedish citizen.

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So, of course, it's…

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You know, with sadness,

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one comes to realize that
that will no longer be the case.

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[David] The south peak of Kebnekaise

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has recently lost its status
as the highest peak in Sweden.

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The glacier
that makes up its highest point

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has been shrinking roughly
at the rate of half a meter a year

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for the last 50 years.

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[Johan] What we're seeing
here at Kebnekaise

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on its own
will not destabilize the planet.

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But having two caps of a permanent ice

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in the Arctic and in Antarctica is

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the very precondition
for the planet to stay in this state

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that has enabled us
to develop civilizations as we know it.

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And that's why
it's such an enormous concern

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to see glaciers melting,

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irrespective of whether
it's a small glacier at Kebnekaise,

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or whether we're talking about Greenland,

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because they all add together

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to this fantastic capacity
of cooling the planet.

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[David] This cooling effect
was fundamental

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in keeping the Earth's temperature stable
throughout the Holocene.

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The planet's ice was reflecting
just the right amount of the Sun's energy

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back into space.

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A permanent white surface
like what we can see around us here

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is reflecting back 90, 95%
of incoming heat from the Sun.

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When these ice sheets start melting,

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not only do they shrink in size

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so the fringe areas
are very dark and absorb heat,

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but even just the fact
that you get liquid surface on the ice

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changes the color so significantly,
so you can come to a point

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where the ice sheets tip over
from being self-cooling

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to becoming self-warming,

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and that is
the most dramatic tipping point

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in the Earth's system.

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[David] A tipping point is a point

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beyond which a change
becomes irreversible.

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[man] It's like a train
that's parked on a slope,

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and it's beginning to move.

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We're losing the brakes on the train,

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and so the train is accelerating,

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getting faster and faster,
and at some point, we lose control.

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[water splashing]

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[David] We are already losing the brakes

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that could prevent the melting
of the Greenland ice cap.

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[man] When I first came here, aged 20,

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it felt like kind of a dream,

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because I was seeing landscapes
that I had only kind of seen in textbooks.

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[David] Jason is one
of the many scientists around the world

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whose evidence and insights
were fundamental to Johan's research.

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The millennia snowfall
onto Greenland has accumulated,

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produced this dome of ice.

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It's two miles thick and,
you know, well up in the atmosphere.

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It's really cold up there.

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[David] As it melts,
the surface of the ice cap

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lowers into warmer air,

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speeding up the melt.

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The more it melts,

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the cooler the climate would need
to become in order to reverse it.

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But today's climate
is already too hot for Greenland.

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So in the current climate,
Greenland is already beyond its threshold,

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er, where it's now losing
10,000 cubic meters of ice per second.

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That's the average loss rate.

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Now, that loss rate will only continue

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as the climate heats up.

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So is Greenland lost?

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Evidently, it is.

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[David] Unless we can
significantly cool the Earth's climate,

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the melting of the Greenland ice cap
will inevitably continue.

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[Johan] The drama here is that
one characteristic of tipping points

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is that once you've pressed
the on button, you cannot stop it.

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It takes over. It's too late.
It's not like you could say,

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"Oops. Now I realize I didn't want
to melt the Greenland ice sheet.

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Let's… Let's back off."

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Then, it's too late.

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When you cross these tipping points,
you can enter a point of no return

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that you basically commit the planet
to an irreversible sliding away

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from a state that,
in our case, can support us humans.

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[David] The melting of Greenland's ice cap

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would raise sea levels
around the world by seven meters.

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[Jason] Imagine a world
where sea level is not static.

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Where it's changing.

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Cities, hundreds of coastal cities
now are threatened by rising seas.

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Er, that stability in sea level was key

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to the development of civilization.

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It's… It's a… It's a Mad Max future
that we're facing.

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[David] But Greenland
is just one of Earth's polar ice caps,

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and it's dwarfed by its southern twin.

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Not so many years ago,

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it was thought that Antarctica
was the resilient system.

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This was the ice sheet that was
not very much affected by climate change.

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But today, that has changed completely.

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Today we're seeing
accelerated loss of mass

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and loss of ice
into the ocean in Antarctica.

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West Antarctica would lead
to sea-level rise of more than five meters

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if it were to melt down completely,

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00:15:10,784 --> 00:15:13,787
and then east Antarctica
actually holds the tenfold of that,

247
00:15:13,871 --> 00:15:17,291
so more than 50 meters worth
of sea-level potential.

248
00:15:17,374 --> 00:15:19,793
[David] Ricarda
is one of Johan's colleagues,

249
00:15:19,877 --> 00:15:23,297
and she studies
how tipping points can interact.

250
00:15:23,380 --> 00:15:26,383
The important point
to make here is that everything

251
00:15:26,467 --> 00:15:28,928
in the Earth's system is connected.

252
00:15:29,511 --> 00:15:32,181
If one part of the climate system

253
00:15:32,264 --> 00:15:34,808
crosses its tipping point,

254
00:15:34,892 --> 00:15:36,810
then that might make it more likely

255
00:15:36,894 --> 00:15:40,522
for other parts of the system
to also cross their critical threshold,

256
00:15:40,606 --> 00:15:45,027
so you can think of this
in terms of dominoes.

257
00:15:45,110 --> 00:15:46,779
If you tip one of them over,

258
00:15:46,862 --> 00:15:49,198
then this might lead
to a cascading effect.

259
00:15:49,281 --> 00:15:52,284
What is clear is
that with ongoing global warming,

260
00:15:52,368 --> 00:15:54,078
we're increasing the risk

261
00:15:54,161 --> 00:15:57,039
of crossing tipping points
in the Earth's system.

262
00:16:00,376 --> 00:16:04,463
When we cross tipping points,
we unleash irreversible changes

263
00:16:04,546 --> 00:16:07,508
that would mean that the planet
will go from our best friend

264
00:16:07,591 --> 00:16:11,720
to a position where it dampens
and reduces the stress,

265
00:16:11,804 --> 00:16:13,722
sucking up carbon dioxide,

266
00:16:13,806 --> 00:16:17,059
taking up heat, absorbing impacts,

267
00:16:17,142 --> 00:16:20,771
and tipping over to a point
where it could self-reinforce warming

268
00:16:20,854 --> 00:16:22,189
and become a foe.

269
00:16:23,983 --> 00:16:28,112
[David] The climate is, of course,
being warmed by greenhouse gases,

270
00:16:28,195 --> 00:16:30,990
so it's in our emissions of these gases

271
00:16:31,073 --> 00:16:33,534
that we find a global tipping point.

272
00:16:34,368 --> 00:16:38,622
Since long before human beings appeared,
the Earth's average temperature

273
00:16:38,706 --> 00:16:44,378
was closely tracking the concentration
of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

274
00:16:45,254 --> 00:16:46,588
During the Holocene,

275
00:16:46,672 --> 00:16:49,800
this concentration
remained relatively steady,

276
00:16:49,883 --> 00:16:53,429
but that all changed
with the Industrial Revolution.

277
00:16:53,512 --> 00:16:58,267
In 1988, we passed 350 parts per million

278
00:16:58,350 --> 00:17:01,395
of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere.

279
00:17:01,478 --> 00:17:04,565
This was the moment
we crossed the boundary.

280
00:17:04,648 --> 00:17:08,527
Ever since then,
we've been at risk of triggering changes

281
00:17:08,610 --> 00:17:10,904
that lead to runaway warming.

282
00:17:11,447 --> 00:17:14,033
[Johan] You go past 350 PPM

283
00:17:14,116 --> 00:17:16,785
in the concentration
of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere,

284
00:17:16,869 --> 00:17:19,621
and you enter the danger zone.

285
00:17:20,164 --> 00:17:25,127
[David] So 350 parts per million
is the first of Johan's boundaries,

286
00:17:25,210 --> 00:17:27,463
and we're already well beyond it.

287
00:17:28,255 --> 00:17:32,885
[Johan] Right now, we've reached
a point of carbon dioxide concentration

288
00:17:32,968 --> 00:17:37,014
in the atmosphere
of roughly 415 parts per million.

289
00:17:37,765 --> 00:17:40,267
We're starting to see the impacts of being

290
00:17:40,350 --> 00:17:43,353
in the middle of the danger zone
in the climate boundary

291
00:17:43,437 --> 00:17:45,981
in terms of rising frequency of droughts,

292
00:17:46,065 --> 00:17:47,941
and heatwaves, and floods,

293
00:17:48,025 --> 00:17:50,778
and accelerated melting of ice,

294
00:17:50,861 --> 00:17:56,033
and accelerated thawing of permafrost,
and higher frequency of forest fires.

295
00:17:57,034 --> 00:17:59,828
[David] Up ahead is a second threshold.

296
00:17:59,912 --> 00:18:05,501
We are rapidly approaching
450 parts per million carbon dioxide.

297
00:18:06,335 --> 00:18:09,213
[Johan] The planetary boundary
danger zone is defined

298
00:18:09,296 --> 00:18:11,507
by the uncertainty range in science.

299
00:18:11,590 --> 00:18:14,927
Today, our assessment is
that the uncertainty range in science

300
00:18:15,010 --> 00:18:17,554
lies between 350 PPM,

301
00:18:17,638 --> 00:18:19,389
which is the boundary

302
00:18:19,473 --> 00:18:22,309
between the safe zone
and entering the danger zone,

303
00:18:22,392 --> 00:18:24,645
up to 450 PPM,

304
00:18:24,728 --> 00:18:28,482
which is when you exit the danger zone
and go into a really high-risk zone.

305
00:18:29,191 --> 00:18:31,401
[David] If we enter the high-risk zone,

306
00:18:31,485 --> 00:18:35,697
irreversible tipping points
become highly likely, if not inevitable,

307
00:18:35,781 --> 00:18:38,075
and this is a conservative estimate,

308
00:18:38,158 --> 00:18:42,371
given that the signs of tipping points
are all around us now.

309
00:18:42,454 --> 00:18:45,707
In simple terms,
the climate planetary boundary

310
00:18:45,791 --> 00:18:48,460
is equal to 1.5 degrees Celsius warming,

311
00:18:48,544 --> 00:18:51,171
and it just provides all this evidence

312
00:18:51,255 --> 00:18:56,552
that we take a huge risk
if we allow ourselves to go beyond 1.5.

313
00:18:57,094 --> 00:19:00,305
We are at 1.1,
we're rapidly moving towards 1.5,

314
00:19:00,389 --> 00:19:04,977
and our only chance to stay
within the planetary boundary on climate

315
00:19:05,060 --> 00:19:07,271
is that we, you know,

316
00:19:07,354 --> 00:19:11,066
reach a fossil-fuel-free world economy
within the next 30 years.

317
00:19:14,153 --> 00:19:16,238
[David] While that target
for global temperature

318
00:19:16,321 --> 00:19:18,323
may have grabbed all the headlines,

319
00:19:18,407 --> 00:19:22,202
Johan knew that this was
only one part of a bigger picture.

320
00:19:22,828 --> 00:19:27,166
For our planet's stability relies
on more than just its climate.

321
00:19:27,916 --> 00:19:32,421
More research and evidence
had to be brought forward

322
00:19:32,504 --> 00:19:38,051
to conclude that we also have
four biosphere boundaries.

323
00:19:38,635 --> 00:19:41,263
Boundaries that are in the living Earth.

324
00:19:42,514 --> 00:19:45,392
These include the land configuration.

325
00:19:45,475 --> 00:19:48,187
How…
How is the composition of biomes on Earth?

326
00:19:49,479 --> 00:19:53,233
Er, the three rain forests,
the temperate forest,

327
00:19:53,317 --> 00:19:54,401
the boreal forest,

328
00:19:55,027 --> 00:19:56,069
the grasslands,

329
00:19:57,279 --> 00:19:58,322
the wetlands.

330
00:20:01,241 --> 00:20:02,910
Second is biodiversity.

331
00:20:02,993 --> 00:20:06,788
So all the species in water and on land.

332
00:20:10,209 --> 00:20:13,420
And then the third one, of course,
the bloodstream, the hydrological cycle.

333
00:20:14,379 --> 00:20:17,090
And then, finally,
the injection of nutrients

334
00:20:17,174 --> 00:20:21,053
that are fundamental for the functioning
of the living biosphere.

335
00:20:21,136 --> 00:20:22,930
The nitrogen and phosphorus cycles.

336
00:20:24,223 --> 00:20:26,558
[David] The first
of the biosphere boundaries,

337
00:20:26,642 --> 00:20:29,019
the composition of the habitats on Earth,

338
00:20:29,102 --> 00:20:33,732
is concerned with how we are now
transforming those natural habitats.

339
00:20:35,192 --> 00:20:38,153
We are fast approaching
a major tipping point

340
00:20:38,237 --> 00:20:41,740
in one of the planet's
largest remaining wildernesses.

341
00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:44,159
The Amazon.

342
00:20:47,204 --> 00:20:49,206
Carlos Nobre has been studying

343
00:20:49,289 --> 00:20:53,835
the rain forest's importance
to our planet's stability for decades.

344
00:20:53,919 --> 00:20:56,255
He was the first to sound the alarm.

345
00:20:57,422 --> 00:21:02,052
[in Portuguese] I saw the Amazon
in 1971-72 undisturbed.

346
00:21:05,430 --> 00:21:06,932
I saw the forest

347
00:21:08,267 --> 00:21:09,268
and the rivers.

348
00:21:10,602 --> 00:21:13,605
I would swim
in the Rio Negro with the piranhas,

349
00:21:13,689 --> 00:21:15,816
And nothing ever happened to me.

350
00:21:15,899 --> 00:21:19,987
[David] Since that time,
large swathes of Amazon have been cleared

351
00:21:20,070 --> 00:21:22,531
for livestock and soya farming.

352
00:21:22,614 --> 00:21:25,826
Carlos has discovered
that this is pushing us closer

353
00:21:25,909 --> 00:21:29,913
to triggering irreversible change
across much of what remains.

354
00:21:30,414 --> 00:21:35,585
[in Portuguese] In 1998,
we began the largest scientific experiment

355
00:21:35,669 --> 00:21:37,671
ever conducted in a tropical rain forest.

356
00:21:40,215 --> 00:21:42,634
[David] Many towers
were built in the rain forest

357
00:21:42,718 --> 00:21:45,220
to study how it creates its own climate.

358
00:21:46,221 --> 00:21:50,976
The data shows large parts
of the rain forest are drying out.

359
00:21:53,020 --> 00:21:54,479
[Carlos in Portuguese] In the Amazon,

360
00:21:54,563 --> 00:21:56,481
the dry season
lasts a maximum of three months.

361
00:21:56,565 --> 00:21:59,651
But with global warming

362
00:21:59,735 --> 00:22:03,530
and also forest degradation,
due to human activities,

363
00:22:03,613 --> 00:22:05,741
in particular, livestock and soya farming,

364
00:22:06,325 --> 00:22:11,580
the dry season has become six days longer

365
00:22:11,663 --> 00:22:14,750
each decade since the 1980s.

366
00:22:15,542 --> 00:22:18,253
[David] As the forest is reduced
and fragmented,

367
00:22:18,337 --> 00:22:20,547
its ability to recycle water

368
00:22:20,630 --> 00:22:24,009
and generate rain into the dry season
is diminished.

369
00:22:25,469 --> 00:22:28,764
If the dry season
becomes longer than four months,

370
00:22:28,847 --> 00:22:32,559
the jungle trees die
and are replaced by savanna.

371
00:22:32,642 --> 00:22:35,270
A process called savannization.

372
00:22:36,313 --> 00:22:40,150
There are signs that parts of the Amazon
are already changing.

373
00:22:41,693 --> 00:22:45,072
[in Portuguese] If deforestation
goes above 20 to 25% of the forest,

374
00:22:45,739 --> 00:22:48,867
with global warming increasing,

375
00:22:48,950 --> 00:22:53,789
we are likely to experience
an irreversible process of savannization

376
00:22:53,872 --> 00:22:58,877
that could affect 50 to 60%
of the entire Amazon forest.

377
00:23:00,128 --> 00:23:05,092
[David] We have already lost
close to 20% of the Amazon rain forest.

378
00:23:06,259 --> 00:23:12,015
We could be about to tip the Amazon
from planetary friend to planetary foe.

379
00:23:13,183 --> 00:23:16,686
As the jungle turns to savanna,
many trees die,

380
00:23:16,770 --> 00:23:19,398
and carbon is released
into the atmosphere.

381
00:23:19,981 --> 00:23:23,276
Carlos has calculated
the Amazon could release

382
00:23:23,360 --> 00:23:27,155
200 billion tons over the next 30 years.

383
00:23:27,239 --> 00:23:31,034
That's equivalent
to all the carbon emitted worldwide

384
00:23:31,118 --> 00:23:32,786
for the past five years.

385
00:23:33,537 --> 00:23:37,290
[Carlos] We are very, very close
to the tipping point.

386
00:23:38,291 --> 00:23:42,003
Are we concerned
about fighting the climate crisis?

387
00:23:42,087 --> 00:23:47,384
Are we, er, concerned
about keeping the carbon in the forest?

388
00:23:47,968 --> 00:23:49,719
Or "I don't care"?

389
00:23:53,390 --> 00:23:56,935
There is reason
to be deeply concerned at this point.

390
00:23:57,018 --> 00:24:00,564
We're still expanding agricultural land
into natural ecosystems.

391
00:24:00,647 --> 00:24:03,024
We are still cutting down the rain forest

392
00:24:03,108 --> 00:24:05,235
at a pace
that puts the whole system at risk.

393
00:24:07,612 --> 00:24:09,990
[David] And it's not
just the rain forests.

394
00:24:10,073 --> 00:24:15,996
Trees of every description are invaluable
in maintaining planetary stability.

395
00:24:16,913 --> 00:24:21,710
So much so that a loss of just 25%
of the world's forest cover

396
00:24:21,793 --> 00:24:25,255
risks triggering
catastrophic tipping points.

397
00:24:26,173 --> 00:24:29,301
But we have already cleared almost 40%.

398
00:24:29,926 --> 00:24:33,221
We are well into the danger zone
for this boundary.

399
00:24:39,019 --> 00:24:42,105
A second major consequence
of deforestation

400
00:24:42,189 --> 00:24:44,191
is a loss of biodiversity.

401
00:24:45,442 --> 00:24:46,401
Of nature.

402
00:24:47,444 --> 00:24:51,156
Biodiversity is the second
of the biosphere boundaries,

403
00:24:51,907 --> 00:24:55,160
because it underpins
our own ability to thrive on Earth.

404
00:24:56,369 --> 00:24:58,622
But we are not treating it well.

405
00:24:58,705 --> 00:25:02,125
Nature is being degraded
at a rate and a scale

406
00:25:02,209 --> 00:25:06,254
that is unprecedented,
er, in human history.

407
00:25:07,589 --> 00:25:13,803
[David] Anne Larigauderie is an ecologist
alarmed by the growing flood of evidence.

408
00:25:13,887 --> 00:25:17,641
Everywhere around the world,
nature is in decline.

409
00:25:19,267 --> 00:25:23,188
One million of species
of plants and animals

410
00:25:23,271 --> 00:25:26,608
out of an estimated total of eight million

411
00:25:26,691 --> 00:25:29,694
are threatened with extinction.

412
00:25:31,238 --> 00:25:34,616
If we continue with this negative trend,

413
00:25:34,699 --> 00:25:38,537
we might be headed
towards a sixth mass extinction.

414
00:25:41,373 --> 00:25:43,333
[David] In just 50 years,

415
00:25:43,416 --> 00:25:49,214
humanity has wiped out
68% of global wildlife populations.

416
00:25:49,297 --> 00:25:53,218
It's clear that we are
in the midst of a biodiversity crisis.

417
00:25:54,010 --> 00:25:56,221
Losing all of this fabric of life,

418
00:25:56,304 --> 00:26:01,309
all of this biodiversity,
is threatening our own life on Earth.

419
00:26:10,235 --> 00:26:13,405
With current negative trends
in biodiversity,

420
00:26:13,488 --> 00:26:16,950
we are not going to be able
to feed the planet.

421
00:26:17,033 --> 00:26:21,329
For that,
you need nature that functions well.

422
00:26:27,544 --> 00:26:30,338
[David] For Johan,
it was a story close to home

423
00:26:30,422 --> 00:26:32,340
that really hit him.

424
00:26:32,424 --> 00:26:38,179
I opened the newspaper and read this story
about UK scientists coming over to Sweden

425
00:26:38,263 --> 00:26:42,892
and stealing, you know,
short-haired bumblebee queens.

426
00:26:43,852 --> 00:26:46,146
And it read like they had,
you know, sneaked over at night

427
00:26:46,229 --> 00:26:49,441
and basically snatched
these hundred bumblebee queens

428
00:26:49,524 --> 00:26:51,359
to bring them back into the UK

429
00:26:51,443 --> 00:26:54,362
and to basically save
what they had been destroying.

430
00:26:56,573 --> 00:26:59,409
[David] Across Europe,
short-haired bumblebees

431
00:26:59,492 --> 00:27:02,287
are key pollinators for food crops.

432
00:27:02,370 --> 00:27:07,375
But by the 1990s, they had been
classed as extinct in the UK.

433
00:27:10,003 --> 00:27:14,591
Here, we have, you know, a country
that feels forced to go to another country

434
00:27:14,674 --> 00:27:17,302
and then steal back
some of its pollinators

435
00:27:17,385 --> 00:27:19,471
to have a functioning ecosystem.

436
00:27:19,554 --> 00:27:22,682
That's a…
Then, you know, to me personally,

437
00:27:22,766 --> 00:27:26,478
that was a moment of, er,
of realization that

438
00:27:27,812 --> 00:27:29,147
this is serious.

439
00:27:30,899 --> 00:27:34,110
[David] Around 70%
of the world's crop species

440
00:27:34,194 --> 00:27:37,447
rely to some extent on insect pollination.

441
00:27:38,698 --> 00:27:42,243
But the expansion
of intensive monoculture is leading

442
00:27:42,327 --> 00:27:44,871
to a drastic decline in insects.

443
00:27:46,122 --> 00:27:49,459
The irony is
that our global production of food is,

444
00:27:49,542 --> 00:27:50,835
in essence,

445
00:27:50,919 --> 00:27:55,006
wiping out the very thing
our food production relies on.

446
00:27:58,176 --> 00:28:01,346
It was not only proof
of one of the fundamentals

447
00:28:01,429 --> 00:28:02,722
in biodiversity research,

448
00:28:02,806 --> 00:28:05,433
which is
that biodiversity is not something

449
00:28:05,517 --> 00:28:08,687
we need to protect
just because of the beauty

450
00:28:08,770 --> 00:28:13,608
or some kind of moral responsibility
from one species, humans,

451
00:28:13,692 --> 00:28:15,652
to another species like flora and fauna.

452
00:28:15,735 --> 00:28:19,739
Oh no, it's the toolbox
for the functioning of our societies.

453
00:28:21,533 --> 00:28:25,495
It is a fundamental piece of the puzzle

454
00:28:25,578 --> 00:28:28,873
to make food production,
clean air, clean water,

455
00:28:28,957 --> 00:28:32,877
carbon sequestration,
nutrient recycling, to work.

456
00:28:36,131 --> 00:28:40,301
[David] Scientists have tried to calculate
the benefits that insects provide

457
00:28:40,385 --> 00:28:44,347
simply by going about their daily business
in large numbers,

458
00:28:44,431 --> 00:28:47,767
each kind providing
a subtly different service.

459
00:28:48,435 --> 00:28:52,439
But their value is mostly incalculable
until suddenly…

460
00:28:55,066 --> 00:28:55,942
they're gone.

461
00:28:58,069 --> 00:29:01,948
A planet without insects
is not a functioning planet.

462
00:29:05,577 --> 00:29:09,497
And, of course, the decline
is not just confined to insects.

463
00:29:10,707 --> 00:29:13,001
Wildlife has been squeezed out

464
00:29:13,084 --> 00:29:18,006
as our agriculture has expanded
across much of Earth's habitable land.

465
00:29:18,506 --> 00:29:24,012
Today, of all the birds on Earth,
only 30% are wild.

466
00:29:25,180 --> 00:29:27,390
And of all the mammals on the planet,

467
00:29:27,474 --> 00:29:31,978
wild species now make up,
by weight, only 4%.

468
00:29:33,104 --> 00:29:36,274
So where is the boundary for biodiversity?

469
00:29:36,941 --> 00:29:40,487
How much more of the natural world
can we afford to lose

470
00:29:40,570 --> 00:29:43,114
before our own societies collapse?

471
00:29:43,948 --> 00:29:48,119
There are many different tipping points
in the natural world,

472
00:29:48,203 --> 00:29:51,456
and it's difficult to translate concretely

473
00:29:51,539 --> 00:29:54,083
the planetary boundary
when it comes to biodiversity,

474
00:29:54,167 --> 00:29:56,961
because life is very complicated.

475
00:29:58,505 --> 00:30:00,757
[David] A single boundary
for the loss of nature

476
00:30:00,840 --> 00:30:04,552
may be hard to pinpoint
because of nature's complexity,

477
00:30:05,178 --> 00:30:06,679
but one thing is clear.

478
00:30:06,763 --> 00:30:09,390
We've already crossed well beyond it.

479
00:30:11,184 --> 00:30:13,478
[Johan] We are so deep in the red.

480
00:30:13,561 --> 00:30:16,231
We are in such a dangerous point

481
00:30:16,314 --> 00:30:21,319
when it comes to losing species on Earth
and destroying ecosystems on Earth

482
00:30:21,402 --> 00:30:24,280
that we have to halt
the loss of biodiversity

483
00:30:24,864 --> 00:30:26,366
as quickly as we ever can.

484
00:30:30,078 --> 00:30:33,790
Now is the time to set as a target

485
00:30:33,873 --> 00:30:37,460
for 2021, 2022,

486
00:30:37,544 --> 00:30:40,255
I mean really
at the early parts of this decade,

487
00:30:40,338 --> 00:30:43,675
that we must aim at a zero loss of nature.

488
00:30:46,427 --> 00:30:51,391
The equivalent of 1.5 degrees Celsius
maximum allowed warming

489
00:30:51,474 --> 00:30:54,519
would be zero loss of nature
from now onwards.

490
00:30:57,772 --> 00:31:02,443
[David] The third biosphere boundary
relates to the planet's bloodstream,

491
00:31:03,152 --> 00:31:06,614
for fresh water is
another of the fundamentals

492
00:31:06,698 --> 00:31:08,449
that society depends on.

493
00:31:09,158 --> 00:31:12,161
Did you know that you and I need roughly

494
00:31:12,245 --> 00:31:18,960
something like 3,000 liters of fresh water
per person every day for us to stay alive?

495
00:31:19,586 --> 00:31:24,007
And you say, "My God, 3,000 liters?
Three tons of water? How can that be?"

496
00:31:24,090 --> 00:31:28,553
Yes, we only need 50 liters
for hygiene and drinking.

497
00:31:29,804 --> 00:31:32,891
We, in the rich world,
use roughly another hundred

498
00:31:32,974 --> 00:31:35,351
for washing, our household needs.

499
00:31:35,435 --> 00:31:38,980
And then industry needs another 150,
so that's like 300 liters.

500
00:31:39,063 --> 00:31:43,651
But the rest,
the 2,500 or so, is for food.

501
00:31:44,360 --> 00:31:48,948
That's the fresh water we need to produce
everything that we have on our plates

502
00:31:49,032 --> 00:31:50,700
when we eat our food.

503
00:31:53,494 --> 00:31:57,290
[David] Fresh water
has a special significance for Johan.

504
00:31:57,373 --> 00:31:59,626
It was the subject of his PhD

505
00:31:59,709 --> 00:32:04,297
and many years of research
in the semi-arid regions of Africa.

506
00:32:05,256 --> 00:32:11,638
I spent from, you know, sunrise to sunset
walking around, sweating like crazy,

507
00:32:11,721 --> 00:32:13,806
collecting data, you know.

508
00:32:13,890 --> 00:32:15,975
Digging profiles in the soil,

509
00:32:16,059 --> 00:32:19,103
taking soil samples,
doing soil moisture measurements.

510
00:32:19,938 --> 00:32:22,690
Just getting wind speed data
and rainfall data.

511
00:32:24,233 --> 00:32:26,110
I've measured so much leaf area.

512
00:32:26,194 --> 00:32:27,987
You don't, you won't imagine, you know,

513
00:32:28,071 --> 00:32:32,867
how careful a scientist has to be
in just measuring in square millimeters

514
00:32:32,951 --> 00:32:35,912
the size of all the leaves on a plant.

515
00:32:38,206 --> 00:32:42,543
[David] It was the details he needed
to answer a much bigger question.

516
00:32:43,127 --> 00:32:46,172
How much water
do we need to feed the world?

517
00:32:47,256 --> 00:32:50,009
My tentative answer
when I was doing my MSc was,

518
00:32:50,093 --> 00:32:52,845
was that,
"Yes, there seemed to be enough water."

519
00:32:53,346 --> 00:32:55,348
[David] But there's
another side to the coin.

520
00:32:55,848 --> 00:32:59,185
Is there a global threshold
for fresh water use

521
00:32:59,268 --> 00:33:01,938
beyond which
the system starts to collapse?

522
00:33:03,481 --> 00:33:06,109
[Johan] We actually scanned off
all the river basins in the world

523
00:33:06,192 --> 00:33:12,865
and then, you know, defining
what's the minimum amount of runoff water

524
00:33:12,949 --> 00:33:18,121
any given river basin must have
to maintain the wetness in the system

525
00:33:18,204 --> 00:33:21,124
so that you have thriving ecosystems,

526
00:33:21,207 --> 00:33:24,502
good supply of water,
functioning river basins.

527
00:33:25,628 --> 00:33:29,424
[David] The volume of water
currently being extracted from each river

528
00:33:29,507 --> 00:33:33,386
reveals why many
are now in danger of running dry.

529
00:33:36,097 --> 00:33:42,061
[Johan] Globally, we're still,
as far as our assessment shows today,

530
00:33:42,145 --> 00:33:44,397
in the safe zone on fresh water,

531
00:33:44,480 --> 00:33:46,983
but we're rapidly moving
towards a danger zone.

532
00:33:52,697 --> 00:33:54,991
[David] The last
of the biosphere boundaries

533
00:33:55,074 --> 00:33:59,454
involves the flow of nutrients,
nitrogen, and phosphorus.

534
00:34:00,038 --> 00:34:03,708
They are the essential components
of all living things,

535
00:34:03,791 --> 00:34:06,502
the key ingredients in fertilizers.

536
00:34:07,170 --> 00:34:11,841
Johan has witnessed firsthand
the impacts of their increasing use.

537
00:34:13,760 --> 00:34:18,181
He spent his childhood summers
on an island in the Baltic Sea.

538
00:34:19,223 --> 00:34:20,558
[Johan] We loved fishing.

539
00:34:20,641 --> 00:34:24,645
Most often, I fished
with my closest friend here, Anders,

540
00:34:24,729 --> 00:34:28,316
and my little brother Nicklaus. And…

541
00:34:28,399 --> 00:34:29,942
So there was often the three of us.

542
00:34:30,026 --> 00:34:33,905
Almost being able
to tell my mother and dad that,

543
00:34:33,988 --> 00:34:35,698
"So you want some fish for dinner?"

544
00:34:35,782 --> 00:34:39,118
and we would come home with a catch,
basically.

545
00:34:39,202 --> 00:34:41,662
One of the adventures was going out

546
00:34:42,789 --> 00:34:46,501
one, two nautical miles
out in the open Baltic,

547
00:34:47,418 --> 00:34:50,713
and that's where we could,
by hand, fishing cod.

548
00:34:52,256 --> 00:34:55,426
I was, at that time,
the best at rinsing the fish,

549
00:34:55,510 --> 00:34:58,304
so, after one hour,
I had to abandon the fishing,

550
00:34:58,387 --> 00:35:01,432
because we got so much cod
that the only way to bring it home

551
00:35:01,516 --> 00:35:05,561
was that we would actually
cut up the fish on site.

552
00:35:06,479 --> 00:35:09,607
So we would have
the seagulls just engulfing us,

553
00:35:09,690 --> 00:35:13,277
because there was so much,
er, you know, entrails

554
00:35:13,361 --> 00:35:16,364
and then pieces of fish
that I was then cutting off

555
00:35:16,447 --> 00:35:18,241
just to fit in the boat.

556
00:35:21,119 --> 00:35:25,832
And that was a cause of great,
great excitement as a kid to do that.

557
00:35:27,708 --> 00:35:31,838
A few decades later, today,
it's a completely different situation,

558
00:35:31,921 --> 00:35:36,467
and you see nobody trying
to go out to catch cod,

559
00:35:36,551 --> 00:35:39,011
because, er, it's just literally empty.

560
00:35:40,930 --> 00:35:46,894
It looks exactly the same, by the way,
as it did in the 1970s, 1980s

561
00:35:46,978 --> 00:35:49,480
when you look at it from above,

562
00:35:49,564 --> 00:35:53,401
but when you look at it from below,
it's something completely different.

563
00:35:55,194 --> 00:35:59,365
[David] When Johan was a boy,
the Baltic was a healthy environment

564
00:35:59,448 --> 00:36:02,410
dominated by predatory fish like cod.

565
00:36:03,119 --> 00:36:06,038
But while overfishing
removed many of the fish,

566
00:36:06,122 --> 00:36:09,834
it was fertilizers
washed off the surrounding fields

567
00:36:09,917 --> 00:36:12,170
that tipped the Baltic into disaster.

568
00:36:12,670 --> 00:36:15,673
It's now the world's most polluted sea.

569
00:36:18,551 --> 00:36:24,140
[Johan] It is when you have many
Baltic Sea equivalents across the planet

570
00:36:24,223 --> 00:36:27,185
that there is reason for deep concern,

571
00:36:27,268 --> 00:36:28,728
because it's a…

572
00:36:28,811 --> 00:36:34,734
It's a signal that the entire planet
is gradually losing its resilience

573
00:36:34,817 --> 00:36:36,736
and gradually becoming weaker and weaker.

574
00:36:39,238 --> 00:36:44,160
[David] Elena Bennett is an expert
on the impacts of fertilizers.

575
00:36:44,660 --> 00:36:48,497
We take nitrogen out of the air
and chemically convert it

576
00:36:48,581 --> 00:36:52,084
into a form
that is able to be used by plants,

577
00:36:52,168 --> 00:36:55,087
or, in the case of phosphorus,
we dig it up out of the ground.

578
00:36:55,171 --> 00:36:56,130
We mine it.

579
00:36:57,256 --> 00:37:01,510
We developed these chemical pathways
or ways to mine phosphorus

580
00:37:01,594 --> 00:37:03,804
that were much, much more efficient,

581
00:37:03,888 --> 00:37:07,391
and that basically doubled, tripled,

582
00:37:07,475 --> 00:37:12,939
or even quadrupled
the production of food around the world.

583
00:37:14,315 --> 00:37:17,109
[David] This was invaluable
in feeding a growing population,

584
00:37:17,693 --> 00:37:21,322
but we got into the habit
of applying far more fertilizer

585
00:37:21,405 --> 00:37:23,407
than the crops could actually use.

586
00:37:23,491 --> 00:37:26,244
The unused nutrients wash into rivers,

587
00:37:26,327 --> 00:37:28,537
over-fertilizing them too.

588
00:37:28,621 --> 00:37:31,040
A process called eutrophication.

589
00:37:32,124 --> 00:37:35,086
What we see are these algal blooms.

590
00:37:35,169 --> 00:37:40,591
Sort of looks like a blue-green scum
on top of the lake.

591
00:37:40,675 --> 00:37:42,551
They often smell terrible

592
00:37:42,635 --> 00:37:46,430
because we're smelling
the rotting of that algae.

593
00:37:47,348 --> 00:37:50,643
As it's decomposing, it uses up oxygen.

594
00:37:51,227 --> 00:37:54,563
[David] Reduced oxygen
changes the chemical composition

595
00:37:54,647 --> 00:37:59,777
of the sediment on the bottom of the lake,
causing it to release more phosphorus.

596
00:37:59,860 --> 00:38:01,988
[Elena] Soon as you have
a eutrophication problem,

597
00:38:02,071 --> 00:38:03,489
the lake sort of says,

598
00:38:03,572 --> 00:38:06,117
"Oh good, we're gonna make it worse,"

599
00:38:06,200 --> 00:38:09,620
and it just creates
a positive feedback cycle

600
00:38:09,704 --> 00:38:12,873
that creates
more and more and more phosphorus

601
00:38:12,957 --> 00:38:16,544
going into that lake
and essentially keeps it in that state.

602
00:38:17,962 --> 00:38:23,009
We also have the same issue
of eutrophication in oceans,

603
00:38:23,092 --> 00:38:27,179
where we get what are called dead zones
from the same nutrients,

604
00:38:27,263 --> 00:38:30,308
and we see those dead zones now

605
00:38:30,391 --> 00:38:33,394
in a few hundred places around the world.

606
00:38:36,355 --> 00:38:40,568
[David] Eutrophication in the ocean
may have been an important contributor

607
00:38:40,651 --> 00:38:44,864
to one of the world's
five previous mass extinction events.

608
00:38:45,573 --> 00:38:49,201
Already today,
some dead zones have expanded

609
00:38:49,285 --> 00:38:52,371
to cover tens of thousands
of square kilometers.

610
00:38:58,127 --> 00:39:00,838
Our overuse of phosphorus and nitrogen

611
00:39:00,921 --> 00:39:03,924
is one of the least known,
but most critical impacts

612
00:39:04,008 --> 00:39:05,634
we're having on the biosphere.

613
00:39:05,718 --> 00:39:09,013
We are already deep into the danger zone.

614
00:39:09,638 --> 00:39:12,725
[Elena] We are well across
the nutrient boundary.

615
00:39:12,808 --> 00:39:15,394
It's… It's not a thing
that we think about very often.

616
00:39:15,478 --> 00:39:21,150
I think we need to be taking this boundary
much more seriously than we currently are.

617
00:39:23,652 --> 00:39:28,741
[David] Nutrients, water, our forests,
biodiversity, and the climate.

618
00:39:28,824 --> 00:39:33,204
Five big components of our planet
that regulate stability

619
00:39:33,287 --> 00:39:35,539
and underpin our own survival.

620
00:39:39,377 --> 00:39:44,006
But Johan and his colleagues knew
that this still wasn't the full picture.

621
00:39:45,341 --> 00:39:48,386
They hadn't yet accounted
for a little-known drama

622
00:39:48,469 --> 00:39:50,638
that's playing out in the oceans.

623
00:39:55,351 --> 00:40:00,022
Its impact on our planet's stability
could outplay all others.

624
00:40:02,149 --> 00:40:05,653
When we emit CO2 into the atmosphere,

625
00:40:05,736 --> 00:40:09,573
about a third of that emissions
has ended up in the ocean.

626
00:40:09,657 --> 00:40:13,035
[David] Terry Hughes
has been a close collaborator with Johan

627
00:40:13,119 --> 00:40:14,370
over many years.

628
00:40:15,121 --> 00:40:17,289
[Terry] That has changed
the chemistry of the ocean.

629
00:40:17,790 --> 00:40:19,959
It has changed the pH

630
00:40:20,042 --> 00:40:23,379
and made it less alkaline, or more acidic.

631
00:40:23,462 --> 00:40:26,006
Hence the name "ocean acidification."

632
00:40:27,007 --> 00:40:29,718
[David] When carbon dioxide
dissolves in water,

633
00:40:29,802 --> 00:40:31,804
it creates carbonic acid.

634
00:40:32,638 --> 00:40:34,640
[Terry] The vulnerability
is in colder waters.

635
00:40:36,475 --> 00:40:38,394
[David] Over the past few decades,

636
00:40:38,477 --> 00:40:42,481
the world's ocean
has become 26% more acidic,

637
00:40:43,399 --> 00:40:46,444
and, for as long as
carbon dioxide concentrations

638
00:40:46,527 --> 00:40:48,696
in the atmosphere remain high,

639
00:40:48,779 --> 00:40:51,365
the ocean will continue acidifying.

640
00:40:52,825 --> 00:40:57,288
The acid reacts with chemicals
in the water called carbonate ions,

641
00:40:57,371 --> 00:40:59,206
reducing their concentration.

642
00:40:59,999 --> 00:41:03,335
[Terry] It affects
a broad suite of organisms,

643
00:41:03,419 --> 00:41:05,129
particularly those that need

644
00:41:05,212 --> 00:41:07,423
carbonate to grow their skeletons.

645
00:41:07,506 --> 00:41:10,426
Things like mollusks, oysters, mussels.

646
00:41:12,094 --> 00:41:15,514
[David] Ocean acidification
has an ominous history.

647
00:41:18,100 --> 00:41:20,895
Global changes in the acidification,

648
00:41:21,770 --> 00:41:25,483
the pH of the ocean,
can actually cause mass extinctions.

649
00:41:25,566 --> 00:41:29,570
We've seen that repeatedly
in the geological record.

650
00:41:29,653 --> 00:41:31,363
So as we manipulate

651
00:41:31,447 --> 00:41:36,035
the planet's climate,
we're literally playing with fire

652
00:41:36,118 --> 00:41:39,747
in terms of the unforeseen consequences

653
00:41:39,830 --> 00:41:45,252
of moving past these planetary boundaries
into uncharted territory.

654
00:41:46,462 --> 00:41:50,424
[David] We are still in the safe zone
for ocean acidification,

655
00:41:50,508 --> 00:41:52,968
but we're pushing towards the danger zone

656
00:41:53,052 --> 00:41:57,056
and potentially
a catastrophic mass extinction.

657
00:42:00,476 --> 00:42:02,686
For all the complexities of Earth,

658
00:42:02,770 --> 00:42:06,899
Johan and his colleagues discovered
that there are just nine systems

659
00:42:06,982 --> 00:42:08,776
that keep our planet stable.

660
00:42:09,860 --> 00:42:13,948
But they've not yet identified
where the boundaries lie for two of them.

661
00:42:14,740 --> 00:42:18,953
The first one is an assortment
of human-made pollutants.

662
00:42:19,620 --> 00:42:24,750
We call it "novel entities,"
and it is everything from nuclear waste

663
00:42:24,833 --> 00:42:27,461
to persistent organic pollutants

664
00:42:27,545 --> 00:42:30,047
to loading of heavy metals

665
00:42:30,130 --> 00:42:32,174
to microplastics.

666
00:42:33,634 --> 00:42:37,596
[David] Humans have created
100,000 new materials,

667
00:42:37,680 --> 00:42:42,685
any number of which could interact
with the environment in catastrophic ways.

668
00:42:44,270 --> 00:42:47,439
As of yet,
this boundary is not quantified.

669
00:42:47,523 --> 00:42:51,610
We simply don't know the long-term
or cumulative impacts

670
00:42:51,694 --> 00:42:54,071
of these polluting substances.

671
00:42:54,154 --> 00:42:58,117
But most have the potential
to cause planet-wide disruption

672
00:42:58,200 --> 00:43:00,369
if not controlled in some way.

673
00:43:03,956 --> 00:43:08,460
There's one form of pollutant
that is already having a global impact.

674
00:43:08,544 --> 00:43:11,589
So much so
that it has a boundary of its own.

675
00:43:12,506 --> 00:43:17,303
Aerosols are basically particles
in the atmosphere.

676
00:43:17,386 --> 00:43:21,098
They are what's called
air pollution particulates.

677
00:43:21,181 --> 00:43:26,395
75% of the aerosol pollution
is from fossil fuel combustion.

678
00:43:28,022 --> 00:43:30,858
We see them as hazy sky,

679
00:43:30,941 --> 00:43:35,529
because they intercept sunlight
and just scatter it like mirrors.

680
00:43:36,030 --> 00:43:38,741
And they cause
what's called "global dimming."

681
00:43:39,450 --> 00:43:44,663
[David] Veerabhadran has spent a lifetime
studying the air around and above us.

682
00:43:44,747 --> 00:43:48,042
The other way aerosols impact climate,

683
00:43:48,626 --> 00:43:52,713
because you're cutting sunlight,
which is the major energy source

684
00:43:52,796 --> 00:43:58,761
for driving the temperature of the planet,
these aerosols have caused some cooling.

685
00:43:58,844 --> 00:44:04,308
When you hear climate scientists like me
say that aerosols are cooling the planet

686
00:44:04,391 --> 00:44:07,686
and mask the warming,
you may think, "That's a good thing."

687
00:44:07,770 --> 00:44:10,356
But unfortunately, it's not.

688
00:44:11,440 --> 00:44:13,484
Because of this masking,

689
00:44:13,567 --> 00:44:18,113
we are still not seeing
the full greenhouse beast.

690
00:44:19,615 --> 00:44:22,451
[David] This cooling effect
from aerosols is masking

691
00:44:22,534 --> 00:44:26,455
about 40% of the effects
of global warming.

692
00:44:27,498 --> 00:44:29,875
And it comes at a high price.

693
00:44:29,958 --> 00:44:34,421
Air pollution kills
over seven million people every year

694
00:44:34,505 --> 00:44:39,927
and takes, on average, three years
off the life expectancy of each one of us.

695
00:44:44,640 --> 00:44:46,892
Where the boundary for air pollution lies

696
00:44:46,975 --> 00:44:49,561
has not yet
been scientifically determined.

697
00:44:53,357 --> 00:44:59,697
Just based on the 7.5 million deaths
by these particles,

698
00:44:59,780 --> 00:45:03,242
I would say we have already
crossed the boundary

699
00:45:03,325 --> 00:45:05,244
as far as aerosols are concerned.

700
00:45:06,662 --> 00:45:10,416
[David] Finally,
the ninth boundary is the ozone layer.

701
00:45:11,291 --> 00:45:15,003
It has the unique distinction
of being the only boundary

702
00:45:15,087 --> 00:45:17,214
where we're moving in the right direction.

703
00:45:19,383 --> 00:45:24,888
[Veerabhadran] The ozone intercepts
harmful ultraviolet radiation,

704
00:45:24,972 --> 00:45:28,308
which directly impacts our DNA

705
00:45:28,392 --> 00:45:31,770
and causes deadly diseases
like skin cancer.

706
00:45:32,396 --> 00:45:33,814
That is why,

707
00:45:33,897 --> 00:45:39,570
when the Antarctic ozone hole
was discovered in the 1980s,

708
00:45:40,821 --> 00:45:42,698
there was a global panic.

709
00:45:44,408 --> 00:45:46,452
[David] The discovery of the ozone hole

710
00:45:46,535 --> 00:45:50,372
caused by chemical pollutants
being released into the atmosphere

711
00:45:50,456 --> 00:45:53,584
persuaded nations
to phase out these chemicals.

712
00:45:55,127 --> 00:45:58,589
[Johan] It was quite fantastic
how the scientific warnings

713
00:45:58,672 --> 00:46:02,217
translated into political action.

714
00:46:02,301 --> 00:46:05,387
This is the first and only example

715
00:46:05,471 --> 00:46:08,807
that we can actually
manage the whole planet.

716
00:46:08,891 --> 00:46:11,852
We can actually return
into a safe operating space

717
00:46:11,935 --> 00:46:16,982
for a planetary boundary that we had
seriously gone into the high-risk zone,

718
00:46:17,608 --> 00:46:20,444
and we returned back
into a safe operating space.

719
00:46:22,571 --> 00:46:25,365
It was indeed fantastic to witness.

720
00:46:25,449 --> 00:46:28,702
Scientists raised the alarm,
and the world acted.

721
00:46:29,787 --> 00:46:32,164
Thanks to Johan and his colleagues,

722
00:46:32,247 --> 00:46:35,667
we now know the planet has nine boundaries

723
00:46:35,751 --> 00:46:37,836
and the risks we face by crossing them.

724
00:46:39,254 --> 00:46:43,050
Together with the ozone layer,
we are, at least for now,

725
00:46:43,133 --> 00:46:47,471
within the safe zone
for ocean acidification and fresh water.

726
00:46:48,222 --> 00:46:52,935
We don't yet know how close we are
to the danger zone for air pollution,

727
00:46:53,018 --> 00:46:56,772
or for all the other pollutants,
the novel entities.

728
00:46:57,815 --> 00:47:00,651
But most worryingly,
we have already exceeded

729
00:47:00,734 --> 00:47:03,487
at least four of the nine boundaries.

730
00:47:03,570 --> 00:47:08,033
Climate, forest loss,
nutrients, and biodiversity.

731
00:47:08,116 --> 00:47:11,662
We are now crossing
irreversible tipping points,

732
00:47:12,996 --> 00:47:15,999
and we are perilously close
to tipping the Earth

733
00:47:16,083 --> 00:47:20,504
into a state that is unable
to support our own civilizations.

734
00:47:21,964 --> 00:47:26,385
What we're seeing in the world today
verifies the planetary boundary framework.

735
00:47:26,468 --> 00:47:29,179
We can see so clear evidence that,

736
00:47:29,263 --> 00:47:31,223
because we're in the danger zone
on climate,

737
00:47:31,306 --> 00:47:34,726
because we're in the deep high-risk zone
on biodiversity loss,

738
00:47:34,810 --> 00:47:38,730
we start seeing increased drought,
impacts on the rain forest,

739
00:47:38,814 --> 00:47:42,150
the forest fires
in Australia and in the Amazon,

740
00:47:42,776 --> 00:47:46,530
the accelerated ice melt,
the collapse of coral reef systems.

741
00:47:51,201 --> 00:47:54,788
[David] For the scientists bearing witness
to these planetary changes,

742
00:47:54,872 --> 00:47:57,749
the loss is much more than just numbers.

743
00:47:58,917 --> 00:48:02,880
Terry Hughes has spent a lifetime
studying coral reefs.

744
00:48:03,547 --> 00:48:06,216
[Terry] A bleached coral
is very, very sick.

745
00:48:06,925 --> 00:48:10,387
[David] Corals bleach
when the waters around them get too warm,

746
00:48:10,470 --> 00:48:14,308
something that's happening
with increasing frequency and intensity

747
00:48:14,391 --> 00:48:16,476
as a consequence of global warming.

748
00:48:17,811 --> 00:48:21,064
In big thermal extremes,
like we've been seeing

749
00:48:21,148 --> 00:48:24,109
during mass bleaching events
in recent decades,

750
00:48:24,192 --> 00:48:26,069
they can actually die very, very quickly.

751
00:48:26,153 --> 00:48:27,070
They cook.

752
00:48:29,990 --> 00:48:33,327
The footprint of a bleaching event
is ten times bigger

753
00:48:33,410 --> 00:48:37,080
than the most extreme
Category 5 tropical cyclone.

754
00:48:37,581 --> 00:48:42,210
So they're off the scale
in terms of the size of the impact,

755
00:48:42,711 --> 00:48:46,214
and in terms of how frequently
they are occurring.

756
00:48:47,883 --> 00:48:50,302
[David] Terry studies
the Great Barrier Reef,

757
00:48:50,385 --> 00:48:52,679
the largest reef system in the world.

758
00:48:54,973 --> 00:48:58,310
Bleaching events
used to be localized and rare,

759
00:48:58,393 --> 00:49:00,479
but over the past two decades,

760
00:49:00,562 --> 00:49:04,316
marine heatwaves
have caused widespread bleaching.

761
00:49:06,068 --> 00:49:11,323
Three of the five biggest bleaching events
have occurred in the past five years.

762
00:49:15,911 --> 00:49:17,829
[Terry] We're worried
about that shrinking gap

763
00:49:17,913 --> 00:49:20,791
between one bleaching event
and the next one.

764
00:49:21,416 --> 00:49:24,002
We've already seen
back-to-back bleaching events

765
00:49:24,086 --> 00:49:26,338
occur for the first time
on the Great Barrier Reef

766
00:49:26,421 --> 00:49:30,258
in two consecutive summers
in 2016 and 2017.

767
00:49:32,052 --> 00:49:36,139
[David] Those gaps are critically
important if the corals are to recover.

768
00:49:36,848 --> 00:49:40,227
Half the reef's corals have already died.

769
00:49:44,731 --> 00:49:48,110
Terry's work involves
conducting aerial surveys

770
00:49:48,193 --> 00:49:51,321
to record the extent
of each bleaching event.

771
00:49:52,155 --> 00:49:56,535
[Terry] When we do our aerial surveys,
we fly as slowly as we can,

772
00:49:56,618 --> 00:50:00,247
as low as we can,
so we can see individual corals,

773
00:50:00,330 --> 00:50:04,501
and we can assess how many of them
are bleached white or not.

774
00:50:05,210 --> 00:50:06,545
[Terry] All the coral's bleached.

775
00:50:07,713 --> 00:50:08,714
[man] Yeah, that's bad.

776
00:50:09,548 --> 00:50:13,010
[Terry] You can actually see
a bleached reef from kilometers away,

777
00:50:13,093 --> 00:50:15,637
because it virtually glows.

778
00:50:15,721 --> 00:50:17,472
There's so much white coral on it.

779
00:50:18,390 --> 00:50:22,102
[Terry] So I've got very broad crest,
and just about everything's bleached.

780
00:50:23,770 --> 00:50:27,024
Those surveys have now been done
five times,

781
00:50:27,107 --> 00:50:28,734
and I have led three of those.

782
00:50:28,817 --> 00:50:33,447
The last three in 2016, 2017, and 2020.

783
00:50:33,530 --> 00:50:34,448
It's, um…

784
00:50:35,282 --> 00:50:37,743
It's a job I'd hoped I'd never have to do,

785
00:50:38,744 --> 00:50:41,788
because it's actually,
um, very confronting.

786
00:50:48,253 --> 00:50:49,087
Sorry.

787
00:50:51,214 --> 00:50:55,218
[David] We're heading for a future
in which the Great Barrier Reef

788
00:50:55,302 --> 00:50:56,970
is a coral graveyard.

789
00:51:00,057 --> 00:51:03,643
[Terry] The climate modelers
are telling us, the biologists,

790
00:51:04,269 --> 00:51:07,230
that business-as-usual carbon emissions

791
00:51:07,314 --> 00:51:09,941
will result
in back-to-back bleaching events

792
00:51:10,025 --> 00:51:13,111
every consecutive summer
by the end of this century.

793
00:51:13,945 --> 00:51:16,656
We've gone past
the tipping point for coral bleaching.

794
00:51:19,117 --> 00:51:21,620
Scientists and ecologists like myself

795
00:51:21,703 --> 00:51:25,749
have been talking for decades now
about global warming,

796
00:51:26,249 --> 00:51:31,379
and it has been frustrating,
um, that we haven't been listened to.

797
00:51:35,634 --> 00:51:36,510
I get angry.

798
00:51:37,928 --> 00:51:40,347
I don't get depressed. I get angry.

799
00:51:41,223 --> 00:51:44,267
There is a real reason to be frustrated,

800
00:51:45,727 --> 00:51:47,813
because the science is clear

801
00:51:47,896 --> 00:51:49,898
and has been communicated
for the past 30 years,

802
00:51:49,981 --> 00:51:51,942
and still
we're not moving in the right direction.

803
00:51:55,779 --> 00:51:56,780
I want you to panic.

804
00:51:57,989 --> 00:52:00,575
I want you to feel
the fear I feel every day.

805
00:52:01,243 --> 00:52:02,911
And then I want you to act.

806
00:52:02,994 --> 00:52:06,414
I want you to act
as you would in a crisis.

807
00:52:07,874 --> 00:52:11,378
I want you to act
as if the house was on fire.

808
00:52:12,420 --> 00:52:13,338
Because it is.

809
00:52:14,339 --> 00:52:16,842
[woman] The bush fires in Australia
have raged for months,

810
00:52:16,925 --> 00:52:19,052
destroying so much
of the country's east coast--

811
00:52:19,136 --> 00:52:23,140
[David] In 2020,
Australia endured a summer from hell.

812
00:52:23,223 --> 00:52:24,891
[man] And our only way out is now

813
00:52:24,975 --> 00:52:27,727
a treacherous gauntlet
of fallen trees and flames.

814
00:52:30,438 --> 00:52:34,401
[David] Fueled by record-breaking
temperatures and months of severe drought,

815
00:52:34,484 --> 00:52:37,445
50 million acres of lands
were incinerated.

816
00:52:41,449 --> 00:52:44,578
People fear
this will become the new normal.

817
00:52:46,496 --> 00:52:49,708
But the science says
there will be no normal.

818
00:52:53,128 --> 00:52:56,965
Daniella Teixeira studies
glossy black cockatoos,

819
00:52:57,048 --> 00:52:59,551
one of Australia's most vulnerable birds.

820
00:53:04,181 --> 00:53:07,726
[Daniella] Glossy black cockatoos
let you get really close to them.

821
00:53:07,809 --> 00:53:11,688
They will learn who you are,
and, in places where you visit regularly,

822
00:53:11,771 --> 00:53:14,316
they actually, I think,
get to know who you are,

823
00:53:14,399 --> 00:53:16,109
and so you can actually go up to them,

824
00:53:16,193 --> 00:53:17,944
sit underneath the tree
where they're feeding,

825
00:53:18,028 --> 00:53:19,738
and get to know the individual birds.

826
00:53:21,615 --> 00:53:23,533
[David] As soon as it was safe to do so,

827
00:53:23,617 --> 00:53:26,995
Daniella returned
to one of her main study sites

828
00:53:27,078 --> 00:53:30,582
on Kangaroo Island off South Australia.

829
00:53:38,298 --> 00:53:41,635
It's February.
Nesting season for the cockatoos.

830
00:53:49,601 --> 00:53:50,644
[exhales]

831
00:53:54,940 --> 00:53:57,567
There's no sign of any wildlife at all.

832
00:53:58,902 --> 00:53:59,819
Um…

833
00:54:01,821 --> 00:54:03,156
There's nothing left here.

834
00:54:06,576 --> 00:54:07,619
It just looks like

835
00:54:08,453 --> 00:54:09,913
complete carnage.

836
00:54:09,996 --> 00:54:12,999
It's almost like I'm not looking
at the spot that I know.

837
00:54:13,083 --> 00:54:16,294
Like it's almost like
this can't be the same spot,

838
00:54:16,878 --> 00:54:18,755
because it's so starkly different.

839
00:54:22,509 --> 00:54:24,302
Yeah, I've spent the last four years

840
00:54:24,386 --> 00:54:27,597
working in this very location, so this is…

841
00:54:27,681 --> 00:54:28,890
This is about, um…

842
00:54:30,267 --> 00:54:34,562
Yeah, this is about as hard as it gets.
This spot was really, um…

843
00:54:35,438 --> 00:54:37,899
Like there was a big commotion
every evening.

844
00:54:38,733 --> 00:54:41,069
We would have had young chicks
by this point.

845
00:54:41,820 --> 00:54:42,821
[sighs]

846
00:54:42,904 --> 00:54:45,115
This is… This is heartbreaking.

847
00:54:46,992 --> 00:54:47,909
Jesus.

848
00:54:48,952 --> 00:54:49,786
[sighs]

849
00:54:49,869 --> 00:54:50,745
[sniffs]

850
00:54:57,419 --> 00:54:58,545
I know this nest

851
00:54:59,963 --> 00:55:00,797
pretty well.

852
00:55:02,090 --> 00:55:04,301
It's absolutely horrible
to see it like this.

853
00:55:06,428 --> 00:55:07,846
And all that's left is…

854
00:55:08,596 --> 00:55:12,767
Is the iron collar
just burnt on the ground.

855
00:55:15,353 --> 00:55:17,063
Like, the iron collar is…

856
00:55:17,647 --> 00:55:20,358
Is what we put on the nest trees
to save them.

857
00:55:20,442 --> 00:55:21,776
To stop the possums

858
00:55:22,694 --> 00:55:23,528
from…

859
00:55:23,611 --> 00:55:25,488
From predating on the chicks.

860
00:55:26,072 --> 00:55:29,492
And just to see all around me
these iron collars just

861
00:55:30,618 --> 00:55:31,995
open on the ground.

862
00:55:34,247 --> 00:55:36,374
You know,
they weren't enough to save them.

863
00:55:40,253 --> 00:55:43,381
This is an ecological catastrophe.
There's no doubt about it.

864
00:55:44,591 --> 00:55:46,551
[David] The 2020 bushfires

865
00:55:46,634 --> 00:55:49,721
were the most devastating
in Australia's history.

866
00:55:50,221 --> 00:55:52,849
[Daniella] Climate scientists
have been talking about these events

867
00:55:52,932 --> 00:55:54,726
for a long time,

868
00:55:54,809 --> 00:55:59,022
and we were expecting
that this might happen,

869
00:55:59,105 --> 00:56:02,817
but I don't think
anybody expected it to be so soon

870
00:56:03,610 --> 00:56:05,070
or so severe.

871
00:56:06,571 --> 00:56:12,994
[David] Scientists estimate that the fires
killed or displaced three billion animals.

872
00:56:13,495 --> 00:56:16,414
[Daniella] 1.43 million mammals,

873
00:56:16,498 --> 00:56:19,501
2.46 billion reptiles,

874
00:56:19,584 --> 00:56:21,711
180 million birds,

875
00:56:22,253 --> 00:56:23,880
and 51 million frogs.

876
00:56:27,133 --> 00:56:30,095
These figures are so enormous,

877
00:56:30,845 --> 00:56:32,597
so consequential…

878
00:56:34,724 --> 00:56:36,351
I don't know how to make sense of them.

879
00:56:37,477 --> 00:56:40,480
That's not what we should be dealing with
as conservationists.

880
00:56:45,318 --> 00:56:47,195
I think this is a wake-up call.

881
00:56:49,280 --> 00:56:52,200
These black summer fires
really showed us that it's now,

882
00:56:52,283 --> 00:56:54,035
it's affecting us today,

883
00:56:54,119 --> 00:56:56,955
and this is gonna have
long-lasting consequences.

884
00:57:00,125 --> 00:57:01,292
Like, where can he go?

885
00:57:04,504 --> 00:57:06,631
[David] Wildfires and coral bleaching

886
00:57:06,714 --> 00:57:10,927
are caused
by us overstepping the climate boundary.

887
00:57:13,346 --> 00:57:18,768
But it is the destruction of nature
that lies behind what has been by far

888
00:57:18,852 --> 00:57:23,106
the most far-reaching impact
of our destabilizing planet.

889
00:57:24,065 --> 00:57:26,192
The COVID-19 pandemic.

890
00:57:26,276 --> 00:57:29,487
It affected your life as it affected mine.

891
00:57:30,280 --> 00:57:35,827
COVID-19 was a planetary impact
we were ill-equipped to deal with.

892
00:57:36,453 --> 00:57:38,663
It overwhelmed health services

893
00:57:39,497 --> 00:57:42,333
and brought the global economy
to its knees.

894
00:57:48,047 --> 00:57:49,299
Though it surprised many,

895
00:57:49,382 --> 00:57:53,678
the World Health Organization
had forewarned that it was coming.

896
00:57:54,179 --> 00:57:56,055
I think it was a question of time.

897
00:57:56,139 --> 00:58:01,644
Er, we were destroying nature.
We were destroying our ecosystems.

898
00:58:03,062 --> 00:58:08,276
We have been doing
very aggressive agricultural practices.

899
00:58:08,359 --> 00:58:12,864
We were doing an incredible,
very aggressive deforestation.

900
00:58:14,157 --> 00:58:18,745
If you add to that the fact
that we live in very polluted cities

901
00:58:18,828 --> 00:58:21,873
with a very high population density,

902
00:58:21,956 --> 00:58:25,502
I think all of those elements
were kind of contributing to create

903
00:58:25,585 --> 00:58:29,589
the perfect scenario
for any new virus to spread.

904
00:58:31,841 --> 00:58:35,970
[David] Zoonotic diseases emerge
and spread into the human population

905
00:58:36,054 --> 00:58:38,515
when nature's resilience is weakened.

906
00:58:39,516 --> 00:58:43,186
It's not healthy nature
that causes pandemics.

907
00:58:43,811 --> 00:58:46,189
In terms of transmission of the diseases,

908
00:58:46,272 --> 00:58:49,609
it's only with certain species
under certain circumstances

909
00:58:49,692 --> 00:58:54,113
and when we invade their environment
in a very aggressive way.

910
00:58:54,197 --> 00:58:58,243
So, for the human health,
animal health, and environmental health,

911
00:58:58,326 --> 00:59:00,078
the three are so much linked.

912
00:59:01,996 --> 00:59:04,374
Exposure to nature is good,

913
00:59:04,457 --> 00:59:07,168
provided we do not destroy nature

914
00:59:07,252 --> 00:59:12,090
and we not destroy the ecosystems
where other species are able to live.

915
00:59:15,009 --> 00:59:20,223
COVID-19, I feel, has made us understand

916
00:59:20,306 --> 00:59:21,891
for the first time that,

917
00:59:21,975 --> 00:59:25,853
"Oh my God, something that goes wrong
somewhere else on the planet

918
00:59:25,937 --> 00:59:28,606
can suddenly hit the whole world economy

919
00:59:28,690 --> 00:59:31,317
and can change my life,
like, immediately."

920
00:59:36,155 --> 00:59:38,449
The appearance of COVID-19

921
00:59:38,533 --> 00:59:41,911
was a clear warning
that all is not well with our planet.

922
00:59:42,495 --> 00:59:47,917
But it's also given us an opportunity
to rebuild in a new direction.

923
00:59:48,710 --> 00:59:52,088
Now that Johan and his colleagues
have turned on the headlights,

924
00:59:52,171 --> 00:59:54,382
we can clearly see the boundaries.

925
00:59:54,465 --> 00:59:58,094
We can see the path back to a safe space,

926
00:59:58,177 --> 01:00:00,138
to a more resilient future.

927
01:00:01,055 --> 01:00:02,390
It is achievable.

928
01:00:04,350 --> 01:00:08,104
It's not a question anymore
of doing economic growth here

929
01:00:08,187 --> 01:00:11,983
and then do some
environmental impact reduction over here.

930
01:00:12,066 --> 01:00:16,154
Oh no, now it's a question
of framing the entire growth model

931
01:00:16,237 --> 01:00:17,739
around sustainability,

932
01:00:17,822 --> 01:00:21,576
and have the planet
guide everything we do.

933
01:00:23,286 --> 01:00:27,874
[David] An immediate priority
is to reduce carbon emissions to zero

934
01:00:27,957 --> 01:00:32,253
and stabilize global temperature
as low as we possibly can.

935
01:00:33,087 --> 01:00:38,343
The window is still open for us
to be able to avoid passing two degrees.

936
01:00:39,510 --> 01:00:42,388
It's even open to come to 1.5.

937
01:00:43,181 --> 01:00:45,099
But the window is really just…

938
01:00:45,183 --> 01:00:46,976
It's… It's barely open.

939
01:00:47,852 --> 01:00:50,396
[David] Since the beginning
of the Industrial Revolution,

940
01:00:50,480 --> 01:00:56,486
we have emitted
2,400 billion tons of carbon dioxide.

941
01:00:57,111 --> 01:00:59,489
To stay below 1.5 degrees,

942
01:00:59,572 --> 01:01:03,451
we must emit
less than 300 billion tons more.

943
01:01:04,160 --> 01:01:08,706
If we continue to emit
40 billion tons each year,

944
01:01:08,790 --> 01:01:12,585
our budget will run out
within seven years.

945
01:01:13,378 --> 01:01:15,129
Of course, we cannot shut down

946
01:01:15,922 --> 01:01:19,592
all energy utilities in the world
overnight,

947
01:01:19,676 --> 01:01:21,511
so the only orderly way to do this

948
01:01:21,594 --> 01:01:25,223
is to bend
the global curve of emissions now,

949
01:01:25,306 --> 01:01:27,100
because that's what all science shows.

950
01:01:27,183 --> 01:01:30,812
Now is the last chance we have
to bend the global curve.

951
01:01:31,604 --> 01:01:33,940
What is the most rapid pace
of emission reduction

952
01:01:34,023 --> 01:01:36,609
that we can accomplish?

953
01:01:37,193 --> 01:01:41,823
Well, there's no study that suggests
that we can go faster than 6, 7% per year,

954
01:01:42,490 --> 01:01:46,744
because 6, 7% per year,
that is cutting by half in a decade.

955
01:01:48,037 --> 01:01:50,331
[David] Cutting our emissions
in half every decade

956
01:01:50,415 --> 01:01:53,459
is an exponential rate of change.

957
01:01:54,043 --> 01:01:56,254
[Johan] Anyone can adopt this pace.

958
01:01:56,337 --> 01:01:58,631
I mean,
you and I can do it as individuals.

959
01:01:58,715 --> 01:02:02,009
We can say,
"Okay, from now on, myself and my family

960
01:02:02,093 --> 01:02:04,971
will try to cut emissions
by half every decade,"

961
01:02:05,054 --> 01:02:08,099
which would mean
that you would be fossil fuel-free

962
01:02:08,850 --> 01:02:11,310
in one generation, in 30 years' time.

963
01:02:11,394 --> 01:02:13,229
And a company can do it,
or a country can do it,

964
01:02:13,312 --> 01:02:16,774
or the world can/must do it.

965
01:02:18,818 --> 01:02:21,529
[David] Phasing out fossil fuels
will, of course,

966
01:02:21,612 --> 01:02:24,657
begin our journey
back towards the safe space

967
01:02:24,741 --> 01:02:26,909
within the climate boundary.

968
01:02:27,910 --> 01:02:31,164
And it will also
substantially reduce air pollution

969
01:02:31,247 --> 01:02:34,000
and also slow down ocean acidification

970
01:02:34,083 --> 01:02:37,712
as well as reduce pressure
on biodiversity.

971
01:02:38,546 --> 01:02:40,590
But zero emissions are not enough.

972
01:02:41,716 --> 01:02:46,679
We must also draw down the carbon
that's already overheating the planet,

973
01:02:47,305 --> 01:02:50,266
and there's one very effective way
to do this.

974
01:02:51,350 --> 01:02:53,102
Plant more trees.

975
01:02:56,773 --> 01:02:59,484
A global effort to plant billions of trees

976
01:02:59,567 --> 01:03:04,655
could be one of the most cost-effective
and achievable solutions

977
01:03:04,739 --> 01:03:06,324
to the climate crisis.

978
01:03:07,784 --> 01:03:13,331
And growing more trees is vital
to offset the carbon we continue to emit

979
01:03:13,414 --> 01:03:17,960
as we strive to reach zero emissions
as fast as we can.

980
01:03:18,795 --> 01:03:21,214
Of course, capturing carbon

981
01:03:21,297 --> 01:03:24,550
is only one of the benefits
that trees provide.

982
01:03:26,093 --> 01:03:30,389
Cheikh Mbow has collaborated with Johan
for many years.

983
01:03:30,473 --> 01:03:32,975
He's an advocate for trees.

984
01:03:33,059 --> 01:03:39,315
[in Wolof] Trees prevent soil erosion.

985
01:03:40,525 --> 01:03:46,739
Without trees, there will be less rain.

986
01:03:48,324 --> 01:03:50,618
If we plant trees in the fields,

987
01:03:51,118 --> 01:03:54,580
the fertility of the fields
and, therefore, production will increase.

988
01:03:56,999 --> 01:03:59,126
We want to bring the tree back
to its place

989
01:03:59,210 --> 01:04:02,380
at the center of sustainable development.

990
01:04:02,964 --> 01:04:05,424
Our job is to make sure
that wherever a tree can grow,

991
01:04:05,508 --> 01:04:06,509
we plant one.

992
01:04:08,553 --> 01:04:11,556
[David] Planting trees
and restoring our natural world

993
01:04:11,639 --> 01:04:16,644
will, of course, have huge benefits
for our planet's biodiversity,

994
01:04:16,727 --> 01:04:21,357
but it will also help
to stabilize our climate, our fresh water,

995
01:04:21,440 --> 01:04:24,652
and have enormous benefits
for our food production

996
01:04:24,735 --> 01:04:28,239
and all the other services
that nature provides for free.

997
01:04:32,827 --> 01:04:37,164
Just imagine, for the first time
since the dawn of humanity,

998
01:04:37,248 --> 01:04:39,000
we could wake up one morning

999
01:04:39,083 --> 01:04:43,546
on a planet with more wildlife
than there was when we went to sleep.

1000
01:04:47,466 --> 01:04:51,470
There's another transformation
that is almost unbelievably simple,

1001
01:04:51,554 --> 01:04:55,308
but it's key to staying
within our planet's boundaries.

1002
01:04:55,391 --> 01:04:57,560
It can be adopted by you or me.

1003
01:04:57,643 --> 01:05:02,273
In fact, by anyone with the freedom
to choose what food they eat.

1004
01:05:07,778 --> 01:05:11,115
[Johan] Now, the exciting thing
is the diet that is more flexitarian,

1005
01:05:11,198 --> 01:05:14,660
less red meat, more plant-based protein,

1006
01:05:14,744 --> 01:05:17,830
more fruit and nuts, less starchy foods,

1007
01:05:18,331 --> 01:05:20,499
if you take that diet

1008
01:05:21,042 --> 01:05:23,169
and assume that all people
would eat healthy food,

1009
01:05:23,669 --> 01:05:27,214
we could actually come back
within a safe operating space,

1010
01:05:27,298 --> 01:05:30,301
not only on climate,
but also on biodiversity,

1011
01:05:30,384 --> 01:05:33,596
on land, on water,
on nitrogen and phosphorus.

1012
01:05:33,679 --> 01:05:36,432
Quite exciting that eating healthy food

1013
01:05:36,515 --> 01:05:41,479
might be the single most important way
of contributing to save the planet.

1014
01:05:47,026 --> 01:05:49,987
There's one more transformation
that is vital.

1015
01:05:50,071 --> 01:05:52,907
It would bring us
back towards the safe zone

1016
01:05:52,990 --> 01:05:55,159
within all our planet's boundaries.

1017
01:05:55,242 --> 01:05:58,162
Imagine a world without waste,

1018
01:05:58,245 --> 01:06:00,206
with nothing to throw away.

1019
01:06:04,669 --> 01:06:07,672
Our waste is created by design.

1020
01:06:07,755 --> 01:06:09,090
When we make products,

1021
01:06:09,173 --> 01:06:12,760
we rarely build in the means
to recover the raw materials.

1022
01:06:13,344 --> 01:06:17,139
If we turn that linear system
into a circular one,

1023
01:06:17,223 --> 01:06:19,976
designing products
so that the raw materials

1024
01:06:20,059 --> 01:06:21,686
can all be recovered,

1025
01:06:21,769 --> 01:06:24,397
our use of resources could be infinite.

1026
01:06:24,981 --> 01:06:28,985
[Johan] So more and more evidence
shows that circular economies

1027
01:06:29,068 --> 01:06:32,863
are fundamental
if we are to stand a chance

1028
01:06:32,947 --> 01:06:38,703
of providing good lives
for all citizens in the world.

1029
01:06:40,913 --> 01:06:45,126
[David] Eliminating waste would bring us
closer to the safe zone for climate,

1030
01:06:45,209 --> 01:06:51,465
biodiversity, and especially nutrients,
novel entities, and air pollution.

1031
01:06:55,136 --> 01:06:58,973
The planetary boundaries
have given us a clear path ahead.

1032
01:06:59,056 --> 01:07:02,560
Simple things,
like choosing renewable energy,

1033
01:07:02,643 --> 01:07:05,187
eating healthy food, planting trees,

1034
01:07:05,271 --> 01:07:07,023
saying no to waste.

1035
01:07:07,106 --> 01:07:10,568
Together, these could transform
our future on Earth.

1036
01:07:11,485 --> 01:07:14,739
And the magic in this
is that these transformations

1037
01:07:14,822 --> 01:07:18,409
would also improve
all our lives right now.

1038
01:07:20,286 --> 01:07:23,039
[Johan] Even if you don't care at all
about the planet

1039
01:07:23,122 --> 01:07:25,708
and even if you don't care too much
about equity in the world,

1040
01:07:25,791 --> 01:07:28,794
but rather are selfish,
just focusing on yourself

1041
01:07:28,878 --> 01:07:32,048
and your family and your own life,

1042
01:07:32,715 --> 01:07:36,427
which I think
is a very respectful position to have

1043
01:07:36,510 --> 01:07:39,513
as a human being
struggling with everyday life,

1044
01:07:40,139 --> 01:07:43,225
still you would want to come back
to a safe operating space.

1045
01:07:44,727 --> 01:07:48,773
Everyone would benefit immediately
of having clean air,

1046
01:07:48,856 --> 01:07:51,817
giving more healthy
and longer life expectancies.

1047
01:07:51,901 --> 01:07:53,652
Your children would be healthier.

1048
01:07:54,862 --> 01:07:57,281
Coming back within planetary boundaries

1049
01:07:57,364 --> 01:08:00,743
also means you are more likely to live in,

1050
01:08:00,826 --> 01:08:04,705
in societies with, you know,
stable markets and stable jobs,

1051
01:08:04,789 --> 01:08:09,251
which then reduces risks of conflict
and instability where you're living.

1052
01:08:09,335 --> 01:08:10,461
So, all in all,

1053
01:08:11,170 --> 01:08:12,922
you want to be in a safe space,

1054
01:08:13,005 --> 01:08:16,550
rather than being in a danger zone
where everything is just in flux.

1055
01:08:19,762 --> 01:08:22,098
What we do between 2020 and 2030,

1056
01:08:22,181 --> 01:08:24,600
from the evidence we have today,
my conclusion is,

1057
01:08:24,683 --> 01:08:27,686
it will be the decisive decade
for humanity's future on Earth.

1058
01:08:29,355 --> 01:08:31,273
The future's not determined.

1059
01:08:31,357 --> 01:08:33,025
The future is in our hands.

1060
01:08:33,109 --> 01:08:36,278
What happens over the next centuries

1061
01:08:36,362 --> 01:08:39,824
will be determined
of how we play our cards this decade.

1062
01:08:41,075 --> 01:08:43,953
[David] It's a remarkable time
to be alive,

1063
01:08:44,036 --> 01:08:48,749
but it also carries great responsibility
to act decisively.

1064
01:08:50,084 --> 01:08:52,419
We have no time to lose.

1065
01:08:54,171 --> 01:08:57,216
[Johan] What would we do
if we had had a report tomorrow morning

1066
01:08:57,299 --> 01:08:59,718
saying that an asteroid
is on its way to Earth?

1067
01:08:59,802 --> 01:09:03,597
Well, I'm sure that we would
just put everything else aside

1068
01:09:03,681 --> 01:09:07,143
and just focus then
on solving the problem.

1069
01:09:07,810 --> 01:09:09,937
Cost whatever cost it takes.

1070
01:09:11,105 --> 01:09:13,107
[David] It is now clear from the science

1071
01:09:13,190 --> 01:09:18,654
that the planetary crisis we are facing
requires the same united response.

1072
01:09:18,737 --> 01:09:20,281
[Johan] I would say that we do not have

1073
01:09:20,364 --> 01:09:22,575
environmental problems
in the world anymore.

1074
01:09:22,658 --> 01:09:24,326
Destabilizing the planet…

1075
01:09:24,410 --> 01:09:29,748
The risk of destabilizing the planet
is a question of security and stability

1076
01:09:29,832 --> 01:09:32,585
for all societies in the world.

1077
01:09:32,668 --> 01:09:35,379
Therefore, it is a question
for the Security Council.

1078
01:09:35,462 --> 01:09:39,175
I think one should put the planetary
boundaries right at the center

1079
01:09:39,258 --> 01:09:44,889
of the most strategic top governance level
we have in the world,

1080
01:09:44,972 --> 01:09:47,141
which is
the United Nations Security Council.

1081
01:09:48,726 --> 01:09:53,689
[David] Such a global response
is now within reach as never before.

1082
01:09:55,441 --> 01:09:58,444
There's something bigger
happening right now,

1083
01:09:58,527 --> 01:10:01,572
which is that one species, we humans,

1084
01:10:01,655 --> 01:10:04,408
are such a dominant force on the planet

1085
01:10:04,491 --> 01:10:07,203
in a way
that we haven't seen across the eons

1086
01:10:07,286 --> 01:10:09,371
over the past four billion years.

1087
01:10:13,876 --> 01:10:17,755
Mother Earth is under continuous diagnosis

1088
01:10:17,838 --> 01:10:20,591
and continuous observation.

1089
01:10:20,674 --> 01:10:23,928
The digitalization
and the hyper-connectivity

1090
01:10:24,011 --> 01:10:27,806
in the world of science
and in the world of observation

1091
01:10:27,890 --> 01:10:31,685
now means we've covered
the whole planet with knowledge.

1092
01:10:32,311 --> 01:10:34,355
What if we're now entering

1093
01:10:34,939 --> 01:10:38,567
a new, unique geological epoch

1094
01:10:38,651 --> 01:10:41,278
that is not only geophysically defined,

1095
01:10:41,362 --> 01:10:44,073
but also defined by the fact that we have

1096
01:10:44,156 --> 01:10:46,533
a new consciousness
embedded inside the planet?

1097
01:10:55,417 --> 01:10:59,255
Thanks to the work
of scientists like Johan Rockström,

1098
01:10:59,338 --> 01:11:04,510
we now have the capacity to act
as Earth's conscience, its brain.

1099
01:11:05,135 --> 01:11:08,514
Thinking and acting
with one unified purpose

1100
01:11:08,597 --> 01:11:13,185
to ensure that our planet
forever remains healthy and resilient.

1101
01:11:13,811 --> 01:11:14,937
The perfect home.